“Longtime political gamblers and forecasters are in frenzied conversation over the distortive effects of what appears to be a single pro-Trump bettor on Elon Musk’s favoured crypto-prediction market Polymarket whose sole intention is to bet on a Trump victory, apparently regardless of the odds. This has had the effect of shifting the entire market on one platform, with Trump now appearing to be a decisive favourite. This has driven news stories asking whether the betting markets know something that the polls don’t, and this also drives interest and can exacerbate the trend towards odds that favour Trump in a positive feedback loop.

At the same time, a series of very close polls have given Trump a small edge in recent weeks, and this has caused some political bettors to change their positions to profit from a rise in Trump’s odds. Finally, casual gamblers, who play an especially large part in presidential elections, weigh into the markets as election day draws in, and in recent US elections (2022, 2020, 2018), these have tended to favour (i.e. overvalue) former president Trump and Republicans who are loyal to Trump. The prediction markets’ odds have now diverged significantly from professional forecasters such as Nate Silver and Logan Phillips.

Whether and how far they will revert back and fall in line with forecasters and polling in what most consider the closest election of all time will depend on how much value tried and true political gamblers see in betting against the current trend. If the polls start to line up with the betting markets’ recent ‘distortions’, then they may hold out for election day itself and their capacity to read the landscape in real-time.”