Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 3.5 (-110): 6:07 PM CT on MLB Network

Don’t go chasing the Aaron Judge home run prop tonight, or any other night for that matter, as sportsbooks are making a killing from it. Instead, this bet is a good way to back the Blue Jays to do what they do best while also fading the Yankees in a tough situational spot. A Toronto team that’s first in hits, first in batting average, and 6th in scoring is always a solid bet to produce at the plate, even if they’ve only averaged 3.3 runs per game against New York this season.

But the spot tells me they’ll surpass that average tonight, even going up against Yankee ace Gerrit Cole. The biggest weakness for Cole is facing teams with lots of power from the right side like the Jays, and that has been the common theme in almost all his poor outings. That includes both appearances against Toronto this season, who have tagged him for a 5.40 ERA, scoring 5 and 6 total runs in those games.

Cole isn’t having a great stretch right now either, allowing 4 runs in each of his past 3 starts. And the Yankees find themselves in a classic fade spot, having just celebrated their division title last night. That should leave them vulnerable today, and I see Toronto capitalizing in the form of plenty of runs.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 872-728 ATS (+76.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.