Locks

MLB (0.25 Unit) Lance Lynn Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

It isn’t a big edge, but I’m seeing one to the under on this prop tonight. This number seems to be lined exactly with Lynn’s average on the season, which sits at 6.1 strikeouts per appearance. But in two meetings with the Twins this season, Lynn has struck out 6 and 4 batters, which is consistent with Minnesota being above-average in avoiding strikeouts. Lynn’s strikeout percentage goes down on the road while his on-base average allowed goes up, and Target Field has not been a great park for him in general.

The Twins have also been fairly disciplined at the plate recently, particularly against the opposing starter. In their past 10 games, the starting pitcher has struck them out just 5.2 times per game, only going over this prop twice. Add in the cold Minnesota weather tonight, making it a little tougher for Lynn to spin the ball like he wants, and I see it as worthwhile to take a shot at the under here.

Degenerates

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Tiny Nick is 871-728 ATS (+76.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.