Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2 Team 6 Point Teaser; Cincinnati Bengals -1, Cleveland Browns -.5 (-120):
Cincinnati Bengals -1 @ Dallas Cowboys
We ran through how much this pick hurts me on my podcast this week, but I can’t let that stop me from cashing a ticket that I think is too good to pass up. Between the Cowboys still playing without Michael Gallup, the decimated and already weak offensive line, and the departure of Dak Prescott due to injury, it’s going to be a long day for Dallas. Cooper Rush had his movie moment last year against the Minnesota Vikings, but even that took some actual miracles that probably should have been turnovers. I hate that this Cowboy’s defense will go to waste because I truly believe they are a solid unit, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals aren’t starting the season 0-2.
Cleveland Browns -0.5 vs. New York Jets
I’m going to keep this one short. Joe Flacco is beyond washed up at this point, and the Dawg Pound is hungry for a win, so I’m all over the Browns this week, even with Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback. Teasing this one down is just too convenient for me to pass up as long as Flacco is behind center for the Jets.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Cleveland Browns -6.5 vs. New York Jets
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Cincinnati Bengals -7 @ Dallas Cowboys
NFL (0.75 Unit) Houston Texans +10 @ Denver Broncos (-110): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
This number is just too big for me to believe Denver should cover it. Davis Mills has been a weird mix of surprisingly good and an expert of back-door covers, which is a great combination with a spread like this. The Broncos are a good team that should have a good year overall, but their defense will most likely allow a couple of touchdowns to Mills and the Texans. That should be enough to cover a double-digit spread in my opinion. I’d also take a peek at the Texans’ team over in this one if it’s below 17.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Seattle Seahawks +9.5 @ San Francisco 49ers (-110): 3:05 PM CT on FOX
Of all the spreads I saw this week, this one felt like the biggest trap. Of course, I’m jumping right into it, though. This one, however, isn’t about how good Geno Smith played last week but more about what I haven’t seen from Trey Lance so far. Not only has Lance left a lot to be desired on the field, but he also hasn’t done the best job of looking focused off the field as well. To expect him to cover a double-digit spread just seems too daunting at this point of his career, so I’m rolling with the Seahawks +9.5 here.
NFL (0.75 Unit) 2 Team 6.5 Point Teaser; Oakland Raiders +1, Baltimore Ravens +3 (-130):
Oakland Raiders +1 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Whether it’s a reflection of Kliff Kingsbury or Kyler Murray, this Cardinals team just isn’t that good. They finished last season in a sputter, didn’t do much throughout the offseason, and have proceeded to look even worse through the first week of the season in 2022 than they did to close out last year. Murray has also trended downward in a hurry and on a “double XP” weekend I don’t see that getting any better. The Raiders play in the best division in football and have a pretty strong team this year. After a tough loss to the Chargers last week, I expect Derek Carr and the Raiders to get on the right side of the win column and wouldn’t be surprised to see Davante Adams have a monster day as well.
Baltimore Ravens +3 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Paris and I disagreed on this one throughout the week, but I just had to sneak it in. I believe in Lamar Jackson 5 times more than I do Tua Tagovailoa and it’s as simple as that. Both of these teams have good defenses, but I just don’t think Tua is going to be able to keep up with Jackson and the Ravens. Even if the Ravens lose by 3 we are pushing, so let’s hop on it before the Ravens show the world how good they really are, and their favorited spreads get even higher.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 858-724 ATS (+74.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.