Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Minnesota/Colorado Over 46.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN2
Minnesota actually leads the country in yards per game, which is something I never thought I’d say at any point in any season. It’s an unfair stat considering who they’ve played, but they haven’t been afraid to score in bunches, and should be able to again today.
Colorado is a doormat at this point with an atrocious defense that can’t stop the run. That just happens to be Minnesota’s strong suit, making the Gophers likely to run all over them throughout the game. After dropping 38 and 62 points on other bad defenses to start the year, the Gophers should be able to approach or clear this total themselves.
But this is also the first power conference offense Minnesota has faced, and the Buffaloes should be able to contribute at least a little like they have in their other games. That should equate to getting over the lowest total for a Gopher game yet, which also has attracted smart money to the over.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Ohio +18.5 @ Iowa State (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This game is a perfect example of college football handicapping 101, specifically in paying attention to situational spots. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better example of a sandwich spot than what the Cyclones face here. They’re returning home after winning a hard-fought rivalry game in an extremely hostile environment at Iowa. And on deck for the Clones is a visit from Baylor next Saturday, so it’s very easy for them to overlook Ohio here, not to mention get up for this game after a draining past week.
The Bobcats did get crushed at Penn State last week, but that’s all the more reason for ISU to overlook them. Ohio has an experienced quarterback in Kurtis Rourke, and he can test a Cyclones defense that hasn’t faced anything close to a functional offense yet. This line is also on the good side of several key numbers, and is also a wide spread in a game with a low total. There are system matches galore here and smart money hammering Ohio, so as much as it pains me I have to fade my Cyclones today.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) California/Notre Dame Under 41 (-110): 1:30 PM CT on NBC
Where are the points going to come from in this one? Notre Dame had their season ruined last week by Marshall in losing both the game and their starting quarterback. They hadn’t exactly been piling up the points before that, and I only see things getting worse. At least with Tyler Buchner at quarterback the Irish were multi-dimensional on offense. But now an excellent California defense will be able to crowd the line of scrimmage, really making life tough on backup Drew Pyne in his first-ever collegiate action.
Notre Dame will have to rely on its defense to have hope in this game and beyond, which fortunately is their coach’s specialty. The Golden Domers won’t be challenged too much by Cal here, either. The Golden Bears have only played FCS UC Davis and a UNLV team that’s a perennial defensive doormat, not lighting it up in either. This team has consistently struggled to score in the Justin Wilcox era, relying on defense just as Notre Dame will.
A focus on the defensive side of the field, running the ball, and slow tempo will be the story of how this one stays under. It might be a low total, but when Vegas goes low, I like to go lower, so take the under here.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Tulane +14 @ Kansas St (-110): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Another Big12 dark horse team, another massive sandwich spot. Kansas State just blew out border rival Missouri last week and has to travel to Oklahoma next week. Tulane is an extremely dangerous team to sleep on and should match up fairly well with the Wildcats. While Kansas State is truly a very good team and should compete for the conference title, they just didn’t do themselves any favors in the scheduling department.
Remember last season when Tulane had Oklahoma on the ropes before falling by just five points, so they are not intimidated by the best the Big12 offers. Another experienced and dangerous quarterback in Michael Pratt can test the Wildcats defense with his arm and legs, probably giving Tulane the QB advantage over Adrian Martinez. Plus, Tulane has an excellent special teams unit to counter a usually enormous advantage for Kansas State. Smart money has once again recognized the situational handicap here and backed Tulane, so I’m going that way too.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) New Mexico St Team Total Under 9 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on BTN
This is really pretty simple, New Mexico State should get shut out in this game. I expect this to play out much the way the Aggies fared in their last game against a Big Ten opponent. That was a shutout pitched by the Gophers defense, a very tough unit.
But the Wisconsin defense is probably a more talented group up and down the roster, making it the toughest defense the anemic New Mexico State offense has faced. And this Badgers team will be playing with a lot of anger after losing as a massive home favorite last week. Make no mistake, the Aggies are very close to the worst FBS team in the country, and will struggle to score on most teams. A talented and motivated Wisconsin defense should be nearly impossible to produce against.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) San Diego St @ Utah -21 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Payback is a (fill in the blank) and will be the theme in this one. San Diego State is really trending in the wrong direction as a program, losing at home to Arizona to start the season after falling off towards the end of last year. One highlight from last year though was beating Utah in triple overtime, so this then becomes a big revenge spot for the Utes.
Utah also needs to pile up the blowouts after choking at Florida in Week 1, and they showed no hesitation in winning 73-7 last week. The Pac12 is looking stronger than expected, and a high level of success in the remainder of their schedule could conceivably keep a path to the CFP open. They have an even better offense to duplicate how Arizona shredded the Aztecs, so look for them to win big and cover the 3 touchdowns.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Fresno State/USC Over 71 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on FOX
I know, I know, college games with a total above 70 don’t hit the over very often. A lot of offensive production and defensive failure needs to combine in order to clear a total like this, and I think these teams have what it takes in both departments.
Particularly USC, whose offense has been incredibly prolific so far under Lincoln Riley, but the defense really hasn’t when you look closely. The Trojans have allowed yards in bunches, resulting in 42 combined points by a couple of weak offenses from Rice and Stanford. If not for incredible turnover luck those numbers would be much higher, and I don’t think that luck is sustainable in general.
It’s not sustainable against an excellent and experienced quarterback like Fresno’s Jake Haener, who will be much better at taking care of the ball. That should get Fresno plenty of scoring opportunity, and they’ll need it as their weak secondary will get shredded by a relentless Trojan passing attack. USC should be looking to run up the score again here, and with Fresno not shying away I’m seeing the points really pile up tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 854-722 ATS (+73.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.