Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Rice/USC Over 61.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network

Lincoln Riley, in his first game at USC, after all the offseason attention and hype, seems sure to lay the hammer to his opening opponent. Riley brought his quarterback of choice along with him in blue-chipper Caleb Williams, who he’s sure to try to generate a Heisman campaign for. It’ll be a definite possibility with all the talent at USC already, plus winning the transfer portal sweepstakes by bringing in 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison at receiver.

And starting off this season in SoCal doesn’t get much easier than facing the cupcake squad that is the Rice Owls. Their weak defense allowed 36.2 PPG last season against primarily Conference USA competition, and their two games against Power 5 schools saw them surrender 38 and 58 points. Against a Trojans team with a ruthless coach wanting to show off and show out, they could give up enough for USC to clear this total themselves.

But USC had plenty of defensive issues last season, and Riley’s focus is definitely not on that side of the ball. So the sheer number of possessions in this game should create enough offense from both teams to easily get over the total.

NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Notre Dame @ Ohio St. -16 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

As we mentioned on my podcast, it’s not often you see a supposed top-5 team listed as a 17-point underdog. Over the past 40 years, only five top-5 clashes have had a spread of more than two touchdowns. But that’s why I used the phrase “supposed top-5 team” to describe Notre Dame. It surprised plenty of people to see the Fighting Irish ranked that high, but oddsmakers know better and installed Ohio State as 14.5-point favorites in this opener. It has since moved to here, and I still think the Buckeyes are the play.

This Ohio State offense should be the best in the country with Ryan Day at the helm, plus arguably the best quarterback, best running back, and best receiver in college football. They can outscore anyone, and Day is known for having the point spread in mind and padding stats for C.J. Stroud’s Heisman candidacy. If there’s a weakness for the Buckeyes, it will be defensively, where another high-powered offense could give them a taste of their own medicine.

But that isn’t likely to be Notre Dame, with their defensive-minded coach, an inexperienced quarterback, and an injury to their top wide receiver. The talent and continuity for the OSU offense just feel like too much for Notre Dame to handle after losing a lot of talent from last year’s strong team. The Buckeyes are singularly focused on getting back to the CFP, and that campaign should start with a blowout here.

Degenerates

NCAA Football Same-Game Parlay: Western KY -16 @ Hawaii & Over 67 (+260): 11:00 PM CT on Spectrum Sports

Keep calm, there’s still a game in Hawaii! Ahh, nothing says college sports are back quite like the get-right games that go well into Sunday morning. Whether you’re chasing losses from Saturday into the midnight hours or pressing your winnings, this presents a fairly decent opportunity.

We knew Hawaii was going to be bad this season after last year’s drama-fest and the resignation of coach Todd Graham. But the exodus of transfers has put this program in a terrible spot, and it showed in Week Zero’s 53-point beat down. Granted, that was from a Power-5 team, but Vanderbilt really isn’t good enough to do that to any other team in the country. Hawaii’s unique awfulness will create horrific losses all season, and Western Kentucky is a team unafraid to run up the score.

But the Hilltoppers just allowed 27 points to FCS Austin Peay in their own Week Zero game, so their defense is again a liability. New Hawaii coach Timmy Chang is offensive-minded and should be able to squeeze more points out of his bad team than they managed last week. But the floodgates will still be open on defense, and we should see a rout by WKY that pulls this game over the total.

Tiny Nick is 838-704 ATS (+77.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.