Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 5.5 (+110): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South

Generally, I’m targeting the Braves when they face a left-handed starter, as their right/left splits are fairly drastic. But this is José Ureña we’re talking about here, so this should just be batting practice for the outstanding Atlanta lineup.

Ureña enters this game with a 5.98 ERA and a 5.54 expected ERA. He’s allowed a .309 on-base average this month, and his numbers against Atlanta’s bats (.310 average and .903 OPS) allowed should mean trouble. It’s no wonder then that since being given a starting role in Colorado’s rotation, Urena’s starts have seen the opposing team average 6.5 runs per game.

Meanwhile, the Braves are hitting everything, averaging 6.3 runs in their past 19 games. I expect them to get to Urena early, then continue knocking in runs against a Rockies bullpen with the 3rd-highest ERA in baseball. With plus-juice on a result that’s been the average for Atlanta and Urena lately, this definitely looks like the right play.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 835-701 ATS (+76.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.