Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Boston Celtics Over 213 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

These teams have been playing to a certain style in this series except for the 34-point blowout in Game 2, and that has driven every other game over this total. We’re not in an elimination scenario yet, so I don’t see that style changing suddenly and should lead to another over in this one. With the Celtics back home at TD Garden where they’re far more efficient offensively, they should raise the scoring floor here.

But the Philadelphia offense is slowly rounding into form as Joel Embiid knocks off the rust. The Sixers big man is still not moving right on that bad knee though, impacting his and Philly’s interior defense which Boston has been taking advantage of. A healthy 76ers team is also likely to keep this one close and naturally increase scoring, so I like the over here on the lowest total we’ve seen in this series.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Al Horford Over 6.5 Rebounds (+110; Odds via DraftKings)

Horford has shown that he’s the best defensive option Boston has against Joel Embiid, which means he’s going to get plenty of minutes and therefore opportunity. He’s made the most of it with 7 rebounds in each of the past 3 games, and is averaging 7.3 boards per game in the postseason. With a plus-money return here I have to take the over.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

This is a smash spot for Denver, and unfortunately everyone knows it as the number has been rising since the open. With fairly dominant performances in their home games of this series and narrow losses on the road, Denver appears to be in control here.

The difference for the Nuggets in those road losses was their shooting, particularly from deep, which held them back from putting a stranglehold on this series. But the league’s best shooting team should be in line for a bounce back here as they return home, and if three’s are dropping that’s the recipe for covering this moderate number.

Denver was the NBA’s best home ATS team at 29-16-1 this season, with the top average margin of victory as well. In a game they absolutely need, I expect them to pull away by double digits again.

Bonus Prop Bets:

Nikola Jokic Over 53.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (1 Unit)

The Joker has crushed this number in all 3 games of this series that have been truly competitive, and he’ll need to again in this pivotal Game 5.

Kevin Durant Over 39.5 Points+Rebounds (1 Unit)

Durant is needing to handle the scoring load with the shortened rotation and the rebounding load with Ayton playing poorly, so I expect him to continue both here.

Devin Booker Over 31.5 Points (1 Unit)

The dynamic duo of Booker and Durant have figured out how to score at will against Denver, and now just need to take their act on the road. I don’t see any letup in D-Book’s scoring production though with Phoenix so short on alternatives.

DeAndre Ayton Under 12.5 Points (0.75 Unit)

One of those lack of alternatives is Ayton, who has looked completely lost in this series. He seems to be in his own head at this point, and this would be a very unlikely situation to turn it around.

Degenerates

MLB Toronto Blue Jays ML @ Philadelphia Phillies (+115; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on NBCS-PHI

Fresh off a sweep of the surprising Pirates in Pittsburgh, this Toronto team is rolling. I was a little surprised to see them at a plus price against a Phillies team that’s now just a game out of last place in their division. Alek Manoah hasn’t been the elite version we saw last year, and has been roughed up a couple times this season. But against a Phillies team that hasn’t enjoyed much of a boost with Bryce Harper returning, he should do enough to keep Toronto in this game. If the Jays can get to Aaron Nola who typically wears down later in games, they should be able to win what may turn into a slugfest.

Tiny Nick is 1258-1104 ATS (+72.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.