Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers Over 214 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
It took a terrible offensive performance from the Philadelphia 76ers to keep game 2 from going over this number. But this game is in Philly which should contribute to more energy from an offense that looked half asleep on Wednesday night. I expect this to be a close game but with Boston’s two headed scoring machine, James Harden and Joel Embiid back at home, and the Celtics offense in general, 214 is simply too low of a total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jayson Tatum Over 28.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
We’ve been on the right side of the Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown flip flopping overs so far this series and honestly I think both are going to go over in this one. But I’m going to lock Tatum in this one because of how little he had to do in Game 2. Tatum scored only 7 points in a landslide Game 2 victory so law of averages should kick in here for a big Game 3 performance on the road.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I’m throwing a horrible Game 2 out the window and looking at what we saw from Harden in Game 1. 45 points and a competitive side that we haven’t seen in quite some time. I’m not expecting another 45 point explosion but I do expect Harden to score into the 20’s if the 76ers are going to have any chance to pull off the home win.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network
Similar to yesterday, but this time I’m targeting Dean Kremer. Kremer has had a rough start to the season, sporting an ERA of over 6 and I expect this hot Atlanta Braves team to take advantage of that. I actually don’t love betting against Baltimore right now so that’s why I am taking the team Braves total instead of a runline but I also would take a look at a game total over at 8.5 here.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Atlanta Braves/Baltimore Orioles Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
NBA (1 Unit) Kevin Durant Over 34.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9 PM CT on TNT
As I’ve said over and over again, it’s all about usage rate here, and Durant will get one of the highest workloads of any player in this game once again. The Suns bet everything on their first unit being unstoppable, and in the playoffs that means they have to keep their stars on the floor even longer to avoid bench minutes from no-name players such as Ish Wainright. That resulted in KD seeing 44 minutes per game in their last series, and that’s plenty of potential opportunity for him to get to this number.
Game 2 was a total dud for Durant and the Suns that I’m willing to look past for this prop. Chris Paul being out with a hamstring injury only means Devin Booker and Durant will have to handle the ball even more than usual. Throw in the addition of rebounds counting towards his total after Durant’s 13 rebound performance in Game 1 and this is a no-brainer for me.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1250-1099 ATS (+70.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.