Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Boston Celtics Over 216.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on TNT
It’s an issue of lack of defense from both teams here, and I think it creates a similar style to the first game. For Philadelphia, the defensive issues are in transition and at the rim. They’ve been unable to stop anyone in the open court for most of the season, and Boston thrives at scoring in transition. The Sixers are also too thin inside without Joel Embiid to slow down the slashing guards of the Celtics.
But Boston has their own problems on the defensive end and they’ve been apparent for most of these playoffs. They just haven’t been able to guard the perimeter, allowing Atlanta and now Philly to shoot a combined 40% from deep. I don’t expect James Harden to go wild again in this game, but the 76ers have plenty of shooters to take advantage. If the Celtics dictate pace and score as easily at the rim as they did in Game 1, then we should see another high-scoring game in this one.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Brown fell just short of this with 23 points in Game 1, which was a big drop-off after 3 games in the 30’s to close out Atlanta. But he couldn’t miss, shooting 8 of 10 from the field, and was overshadowed by Jayson Tatum’s big night. That’s encouraging for tonight as he’s so good at getting to the rim, and the Sixers are so depleted inside. If Brown stays hot and Tatum shares the scoring load, he should clear this total.
MLB (1 Unit) Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ Washington Nationals (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MASN
The Cubs have fallen off a bit after their hot start, losing some very close games. But they should not lose a game like this, and should in fact dominate it. With Chicago sending Marcus Stroman to the mound, they have a big advantage over the Nationals in pitching here.
Washington is sending out Jake Irvin for his first major league appearance, and while sometimes those spots can be unpredictable, the Cubs probably only need a few runs off him and a bad bullpen to create a big margin here. Stroman should be able to hold down a Nats team that’s 28th in OPS, weighted runs created, and weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching. I’m expecting minimal offense from Washington while the Cubs bounce back and win this game easily.
MLB (1 Unit) Seattle Mariners -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (-105; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA
It’s tough not to pick on Oakland night in and night out, especially when you can get basically even money on an undervalued Mariners team to win by margin. Seattle has seen a lot of regression at the plate from last year’s surprising season, but this lineup is too good to stay down for long. What could very well help is facing this A’s squad with by far the highest team ERA for both starters and relievers.
And what Oakland is also bad at is producing against right-handed pitching, which they’ll see tonight with Logan Gilbert taking the mound. Gilbert has also struggled lately, but facing the A’s is a good opportunity to get back on track. Oakland is still the team with the worst run differential, average margin, and plus-minus to the run line in baseball. So at this price I’ll take a shot on Seattle making some overall improvements to win by margin.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1243-1095 ATS (+69.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.