Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 103.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
The Heat have been the drivers of this series going 3-1 to the over, as they’re 4-0 over this team total. With the series returning to MSG and the Knicks favored, the Miami team total gets discounted to this number, and I’m taking advantage. The Heat offense and shooting has been maybe the biggest surprise to me in this postseason, and the Knicks have not made any adjustments to truly slow it down.
I think it continues here tonight for that reason, and because I see a higher-scoring game in general from New York who is extremely efficient offensively in their own building. But their inability to create separation from Miami should drag the Heat up into this range of scoring no matter the game outcome. I’m a little uncomfortable taking Miami on the spread given the awkwardness of 3.5 points, but this is probably a better way to back the team that is obviously superior without losing a close spread decision.
NBA (1 Unit) Golden State Warriors First Half Team Total Over 60 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
The Warriors are backed into a corner here down 3-1 in the series, and there’s nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal. Even if you believe the corgi on TikTok that predicted the Warriors being in this hole and still winning the series, they need to start here with a massive performance. I think that starts early tonight with Golden State’s offense catching fire.
They had no trouble in the first half of both Games 1 and 2 at home, putting up 64 and 67 points. But they’ve struggled in the second half of every game this series with just 51.5 points on average, so isolating them for a strong start makes more sense. Being back at home where their offense is so dangerous, with their backs against the wall, I see the Warriors lighting it up early as they try to stay alive tonight.
Bonus Prop Bets:
Draymond Green Over 7.5 Rebounds (0.5 Unit)
Green’s rebounding contributions have been inconsistent in these playoffs. But with Kevon Looney ineffective against AD, Draymond will need to see more minutes and do more work on the boards.
Klay Thompson Over 22.5 Points (0.75 Unit)
Thompson had two very pedestrian games in LA after dropping 25 and 30 in the first two games, so returning home should see him return to his old self. If the Warriors are going to stay alive via the offensive barrage I’m expecting, then Klay will need to be a key contributor.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1261-1108 ATS (+71.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.