Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Detroit Lions -2.5 First Half @ SF 49ers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

Pay very close attention to the status of Detroit starters, especially Jared Goff, leading up to kickoff tonight before actually jumping in on this bet. The Lions have absolutely no reason to play any starters and risk furthering their status as the most injured team in the league. The only game that matters for them is next week against Minnesota, but that’s no guarantee that Dan Campbell won’t make an emotional decision on personnel tonight.

The Lions return to the scene of the crime where Campbell most likely cost them a trip to the Super Bowl last season, and if this game truly mattered I think we’d see the Lions lined as significant favorites against the depleted 49ers. This Detroit team leads the NFL in first half scoring, and they actually score more in road games, so if they want to make a statement and avenge the NFC Championship collapse they certainly are capable. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lions maybe play starters for a limited amount of time either, which helps with covering the first half, so with an eye on the “injury” report I like this first half number.

NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks/Washington Wizards First Half Over 118.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

Keep an eye on the status of Jalen Brunson tonight who is dealing with a calf issue and is listed as a game-time decision. I would much prefer his scoring ability is part of the equation here, as the past two meetings between these teams have seen him be a major contributor. Those meetings were consistent in their first half outputs, with 120 and 127 points coming before halftime.

With how bad Washington is defensively, especially in first halves where they’re 29th in the NBA allowing 61.4 first half points, it may not matter if Brunson plays or not. With the Wizards pushing an up-tempo style and the Knicks being such a good shooting team, the formula is definitely there to get over this first half number, and hopefully the key players are available.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Columbia/Rutgers Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on BTN

This is not the Rutgers team of the past few years that was notoriously slow-paced and offensively challenged. The Scarlett Knights have the talent to play a different style now with lottery picks Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper on campus, and the change has been evident as they’re a top-60 team in both offense and tempo. But the defense has fallen off as a result, and teams with high-quality offenses have given them trouble.

That’s what you’d have to consider Columbia given their shooting prowess, with the Lions ranked 10th nationally in effective field goal rate, along with 27th in three-point percentage. You have to consider that this team went on the road and put 90 on a good Villanova defense, so they can hang with the big boys. Metrics sites are projecting a game in the 160’s here and I would have to agree given the strength of offenses involved, so I’m going with the over.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Portland @ Oregon St -17.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN+

This number has actually ticked down from the opener, but I simply disagree with the movement. I’ve seen enough of Oregon State to know what they’re capable of against the cupcakes of college basketball, and the competition doesn’t get much softer than Portland tonight. I’m sure the Beavers will want to establish dominance over their new WCC conference foes right away, along with erasing the memory of collapsing late in their Christmas tournament championship game in Hawaii.

The bottom line here is that Oregon State has played six home games against teams outside the top-225 in KenPom. They’ve gone 6-0 ATS in those games, won by more than this number each time, and averaged a 26.0 average margin of victory. Portland checks in at 323rd in KenPom, can’t shoot, can’t defend, and should get blown out here. I’m not buying that a conference game should mean a closer game, not with what upper-level talent has done to the WCC in years past, so the Beavers should roll tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego Team Total Under 72.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I guess you have to make San Diego a favorite here in a conference home game against another awful team. But all that serves to do is artificially inflate their team total to a level where they just don’t go. The Toreros haven’t scored this many points for 10 straight games, and that includes one against a D2 school so this offense is pretty miserable. They’re down to 355th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 337th in effective field goal rate, numbers that can’t be compensated for by their up-tempo style.

Pacific is not much better so this should be a brick fest, but the one thing the Tigers do reasonably well is defend the interior. That’s where San Diego tries to get most of their points due to horrid three-point shooting, and if they’re neutralized inside then I don’t see any hope of them finally reaching this high of a team total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +76.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.