Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs First Half Team Total Over 14.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Prime Video

I’ll believe Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs want to win a game by margin when I actually see it, not when he complains about how it never happens. He’s right, it doesn’t happen, especially not as massive home favorites like they are today. But if they’re going to put in the kind of effort to make that happen, then the offense will be cooking early, and shredding a very bad defense here.

My expectation would be Mahomes coming out throwing early, much like they did last week in Carolina, to take advantage of a Raiders defense that is 30th in EPA per play against the pass. With Mahomes likely still salty from some Kermit comments out of the Raiders this preseason, look for him and the Chiefs to try to put up a big number in the first half.

Bonus Prop Pick (1 Unit): Brock Bowers Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics/Chicago Bulls Over 242.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7::00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

This sky-high total is completely justified in my opinion, and I think these two teams clear it pretty easily. It’s all about Chicago leading the league in pace, while checking in at 28th in defensive efficiency. If they turn this game into a track meet with a Boston team that has gotten hot from deep recently, the points will come in waves tonight.

But these are both excellent shooting teams, ranked top-5 in effective field goal rate, so both offense will contribute here. It’s also worth noting that Boston should be looking to run up the margin for this NBA Cup game, so don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas which will send this game over the number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Seattle @ Duke -15.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network

Give credit to Duke for leaving Cameron Indoor to play tough teams, even though it hasn’t worked out for them in the win column. Duke’s close losses to Kentucky and Kansas are nothing to be ashamed of, but something they want to bounce back from and that’s what I see them doing again today. After the Kentucky loss, the Blue Devils came home and crushed Wofford right out of the gates, leading by 37 at halftime.

Wofford has a fairly similar profile to Seattle who visits Cameron Indoor today, and I think the result will be similar as well. The Redhawks have a very poor shooting defense, ranked 353rd in effective field goal defense and 358th in two-point defense. Duke should get whatever they want in this one, and as the team that’s 10th nationally in average first half margin, I think they want to flush the memory of the Kansas loss with another strong start.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) USC/New Mexico Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 11:00 PM CT on truTV

USC finds themselves in a significant bounce back situation here, and I think it leads to another high-scoring game. Their shocking 36-point output on Wednesday was mostly the product of a game that got away from them against a strong defense, along with going an improbable 0-for-12 from deep.

I don’t see that happening again, not against a New Mexico team that’s ranked 283rd in three-point defense, and I’m sure the Trojans will have the neutral court sightlines figured out by tonight. But with the Lobos running at the country’s fastest tempo and scoring like crazy, I see another track meet unfolding in this one and I’ll take a shot on the over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.