Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) UTEP @ Tennessee -23.5 First Half (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Be sure to snag this number off of Fanduel, as it’s significantly mispriced compared to the rest of the market and below a key number for first halves. It probably won’t matter, because I think we get the version of Tennessee that we saw early in the season when they feasted on non-conference weaklings like this. In their true home games against non-conference opponents, the Volunteers held leads of 65 and 45 points at halftime.
UTEP is probably slightly better than those teams, but they’ve struggled against decent CUSA competition so they’re no match for angry and motivated Tennessee here. The Vols were the first team left out of the CFP rankings this week after losing to Georgia, and will need all the statements they can get. But with an SEC road game next week, I think they look to run it up early and coast late.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Washington St/Oregon St Over 56.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CW
Does this game qualify as the PAC12 title game? I’m a little confused how that all works, but conference realignment craziness aside, I think we see plenty of scoring in whatever this game represents. I’ve watched enough of Washington State to know that they can’t stop anything, which is good news for an Oregon State offense that has struggled lately. The Beavers have quarterback troubles, but their offense has been much better at home and when QB Gevani McCoy is allowed to be his natural running self.
The Cougars just proved last week that they can’t handle mobile quarterbacks and are 129th in yards per rush allowed. But Wazzu is also likely to want to make a statement here after a bad loss, and John Mateer should carve up an Oregon State defense that’s almost as bad on the ground, ranked 115th in yards per rush allowed. Big chunk plays against inefficient defenses invariably lead to points, and that’s what I see here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Detroit Pistons +9.5 @ Orlando Magic (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL
The Magic just spent a week-long road trip to the west coast, and now return home for a Malinksy Special and still don’t have their star. That road trip had it’s ups and downs for Orlando, but finished with an up as they beat the Lakers, so this is a natural let-down spot for them. The Pistons come in without Cade Cunningham for an extended period, but the Magic still don’t have Paolo Banchero to give them the kind of edge needed to win by double digits. With the Pistons a very strong 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, I’ll take the points and expect a bit of a sleepy spot for the Magic tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue First Half Team Total Over 41 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on BIG+
My seemingly favorite college hoops angle returns here with the Boilermakers coming back home, and they should be in a foul mood. Purdue got embarrassed by Marquette this week, and I would expect them to be looking to take that out on someone. Marshall shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge for them, as the Herd are just an average team and the Boilers have stomped much better competition in other first halves this season.
Marshall has only faced one solid offense this year when Toledo came into their house and put up 47 before halftime, and the Rockets are nowhere near the offensive talent Purdue is. With matchup advantages everywhere and significant motivation on their side, look for Purdue to hang a big number early as they usually do.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +69.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.