Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks -1.5 @ Chicago Bulls (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on CHSN

It’s a little scary when two teams who you know will combine for zero defense get together, and that’s why this spread is so tight because anything can happen in that kind of wild game. But I have to side with the Hawks here who come in much healthier than Chicago does. The Bulls have a few key injuries including Patrick Williams being out and Coby White banged up, while Atlanta has essentially a clean bill of health.

As the sky-high total of 246 suggests, stops will be a minimum tonight, but at least the Hawks generate a lot of steals so there will be slightly more defense from them. This is also a revenge game for the Hawks after the first meeting saw them completely melt down in the fourth to give away a solid lead. With the Bulls just 1-5 at United Center this season with the second-worst average margin of victory in the league in home games, give me Atlanta to grab this win.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Hawks First Half Team Total Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

The Bulls come into this game with arguably the worst defense in the league, even if it doesn’t say that on paper necessarily. What is on paper though is the fact that they allow the most first half points in the league at 63.1 overall, and in home games at 62.3 on average. That first meeting saw the Hawks ring up 70 before halftime, so they’re quite capable of getting to this number and I think they will tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wisconsin/UCF Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 4:00 PM CT on CBSSN

These neutral site games have gotten pretty high-scoring early in this college basketball season, and I’m seeing another here between two good offenses. I’ve never seen a Wisconsin team shoot and score the way this year’s version has, averaging 88.2 PPG and checking in at 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Badgers are on fire from deep and they don’t miss from the charity stripe, both of which are relative weaknesses for the UCF defense. But the Knights can score as well, and I’ve seen cracks in the Wisconsin defense lately, so this game should match the metrics projections of getting over this total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah Team Total Over 89.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on ESPN+

The Utes looked unbeatable in three home games to start the season, then lost on the road last time out. I think that gives them a lot of motivation to stomp on an in-state little brother school here, and it’s a game where Utah can name their score.

It’s all about the three-ball with Utah, as they’re the team who attempts the second-most nationally and makes them at the 16th-best percentage. With Utah Tech isn’t bad statistically against the three, they haven’t faced anyone with near that kind of reliance on perimeter shooting. I really think the Utes get back to their usual ways at Huntsman Center which this season has meant averaging 98.0 PPG, so I’ll take their team over here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Norfolk State Team Total Over 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Another Grand Canyon game, another outrageous spread for a team that can’t stop anything and has allowed every opponent to go well over this number. The Antelopes have too much talent to be this bad, so at some point they’ll get their stuff together. But even if that happens here, I would expect them to drag their opponent’s scoring up in a blowout game.

No matter how this game unfolds, it’s far too low of a team total for any opponent with a competent offense, and that’s what Norfolk has. The Spartans have a solid effective field goal rate and shoot it very well from inside the arc. They’re also very good from the free throw line, so a foul-prone team like GCU will give them plenty of easy points there. Bottom line is until GCU proves me wrong, I’ll be attacking numbers like this with their games all season.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.