Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Boston College/SMU Over 53.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
Much was made of the Boston College defense early this season after they fared well against a couple of opponents who were top-10 teams at the time. But looking back at those and their other non-conference games, the opposition was not what it was cracked up to be and now the true Eagles defense has shown itself. They’ve now allowed 34.7 PPG the past three weeks as the offensive competition has risen, and it takes another step up with SMU here.
The Mustangs are 11th nationally in scoring, and even better on an efficiency basis as they’re 7th in yards per point. They’re also looking for a statement win here after being left on the outside looking in to this week’s CFP rankings, so they won’t be shy about running up the score. I’m not particularly worried about Grayson James taking over at quarterback for BC, so I see enough scores being traded here that this one clears the relatively low total.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Baylor/West Virginia Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN2
It’s a beautiful fall day in Morgantown, and I think that helps two excellent passing offenses throw it all over the yard today. With Sawyer Robertson for Baylor and Garrett Greene for West Virginia, this game features two quarterbacks who can trade shots all day long, and I expect they will. Both the Bears and Mountaineers have atrocious pass defenses, allowing very high completion percentages and a ton of yardage per game.
They’re also 93rd and 99th, respectively, in opponent yards per point allowed, so defense looks to be optional in this one. While WVU is a run-first team, they’ll have to throw here to avoid a strong Bears run defense, and will probably be forced to anyway due to game flow. Baylor’s conference games have been insane, going 6-0 over this total while averaging a sky-high 71.0 PPG. Their excellent offense and horrible defense are the drivers of those shootouts, and I expect them to fuel another today.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Kansas/BYU Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:15 PM CT on ESPN
It’s too late to matter, but Kansas has finally figured out how to get their offense rolling. The Jayhawks are looking at a lost season, but excellent QB Jalon Daniels has gotten them on track offensively, putting up plenty of points against strong defenses in recent weeks. I have very little confidence in BYU’s defense that has ridden plenty of luck to their undefeated season, but shows a lot of holes when they face strong offenses.
But the Cougars are elite offensively themselves behind Jake Retzlaff and some excellent receivers, so they should torch a Kansas defense that’s ranked 82nd in points allowed and always wilts in crunch time. I also have an eye on the spread for this game that’s very short for a bad team visiting an undefeated one. That tells me we’re in for a back-and-forth affair where both teams will trade scores, and this total pushing through the key number of 56 shows smart money agrees.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Toledo/Detroit Mercy Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+
These teams have faced off in the non-conference slate fairly often in recent years, and it always seems to be a shootout. The past five meetings have seen an average of 158.6 points as this matchup tends to be more of an exhibition game. I think we see a similar style today between two teams who do not have defense high on their list of priorities.
Toledo checks in at 281st in adjusted defensive efficiency so far, which is somehow far better than Detroit’s 348th ranking in that same category. Toledo can really fill it up and are averaging 83.3 PPG so they’ll go right through the Detroit defense here, but the Titans will have a big offensive rebounding advantage that they’ll use to generate extra scoring chances. That should turn this into a high-scoring affair that gets over the big total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) FAU/Liberty Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on YouTube
This total seems relatively fair to me given Liberty’s defensive abilities, but I don’t know that it’s factoring in the situation enough. FAU just went to double overtime last night in this neutral site tournament, losing 119-116 in a game that had to leave them with no legs today.
That’s actually not FAU’s first time allowing a team into triple digits though, as UCF did that to them earlier this week so their defense is not in a good place whatsoever. But the Owls can score, and will finally give a true test to Liberty’s defense, so in a game where one team should be exhausted I’ll take a shot on the over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +71.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.