Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Atlanta Hawks Over 233.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on NBCS-Boston
Keep an eye on the status of Sam Hauser for this game, as he looks like a game-time decision but will be key to Boston scoring at their usual level. The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown here, but that actually might be an upgrade to their offense with how poorly he’s been shooting. Hauser would be a natural option to pick up Brown’s minutes and opportunities, giving the Celtics a boost offensively in my opinion.
It might not matter though if Atlanta keeps playing defense the way they have so far this season. The Hawks rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 28th in defensive rating, which has fueled their games going 6-1 over this total. They’re also on a back-to-back with travel here, which will make it difficult to contend with Boston’s elite offense. If Hauser is available to bolster the Celtics shooting, they should torch the Atlanta defense and help get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Purdue First Half Team Total Over 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on BTN
This is what Purdue does with regularity, running up big numbers in first halves against overmatched opponents that visit Mackey Arena. Last season they averaged 45.0 points in first halves in this situation, getting into the 40’s every time. The Boilermakers also averaged 0.2 points more in first halves than second halves on the year, which is rare in college basketball. A quick check of KenPom shows that he expects 85 points out of Purdue tonight, so if their first half tendencies carry over that will make this a fairly comfortable total to reach before halftime.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Howard/Kansas Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
There’s no question that last season was a down one by the standards at Kansas, and Bill Self will want to erase those memories as quickly as possible with a big statement. He wasted no time in bringing in several impact transfer players, and this team is worthy of their top national ranking.
If this team doesn’t approach triple digits on the scoreboard tonight it will be embarrassing since Howard was 334th in adjusted defensive efficiency last season. KU put up 99 points in their two home games to open last year, so that’s not uncommon for the Jayhawks. But Howard has always been a good shooting team that plays up-tempo, so I see a lot of scoring in this opener tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Mississippi Valley St/Iowa St Over 131.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Vibes are high in Ames with my Cyclones opening with a top-5 ranking, which I can’t recall happening before. The difference between them and their opponent today couldn’t be much more drastic then, as MVSU kicks off the season ranked dead last in KenPom, and I expect a beating to get handed out. ISU did this plenty last season against a very soft non-conference schedule, regularly scoring into the 90’s and even triple digits against a collection of cupcakes.
The Delta Devils will offer no resistance whatsoever, it’s kind of their thing, so if the Clones have one of those big nights offensively they’ll do the vast majority of the work to get to this total. Metrics sites have this game getting into the 130’s with ease, and I agree so I’ll take the over here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNC Asheville/Alabama Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU
This game should be a three-point contest, especially from Alabama whose style will not change one bit from the past few years. The Tide have the talent to run that style at its highest level possible, and should start with a bang tonight. Asheville will have no answer for the pace and shooting ability that Alabama brings, and I would not be surprised at all to see the Tide cross triple digits like they did 5 times against non-conference opponents last year. Asheville can still shoot though, especially with the addition of Fletcher Abee, so the three’s will be flying in this one. If enough of those connect we’ll see a busy night for the scoreboard operator.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nicholls St/New Mexico Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on MWN
This game was one of the last to have lines posted, but smart money immediately jumped on it. They specifically hit the over, causing the total to rise several points, and I’m in agreement. It’s especially notable since sharps are coming in on the over despite it already being above the KenPom projection.
This should be an up-tempo game with Richard Pitino always liking to push pace, as they were 9th in adjusted tempo last year. Personnel losses shouldn’t matter much to that style, so the Lobos should go up and down the floor with their usually efficient offense. Nicholls won’t have any problem with that style, and their three-point shooting will test New Mexico’s defense, so look for this to get over the rising total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Canisius/Arizona Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This total might be well above several of the projections from metrics sites, but I just don’t care. One of the rules of early season college basketball is to look for Arizona to put a massive number on the board against outmatched opponents. Tommy Lloyd loves running it up in these games, which was on display last year as their first four home games averaged 165.5 points. The Wildcats have their usual elite combination of size and shooting, so they’ll get easy buckets all night long against Canisius. If Arizona again plays at a top-10 tempo, then games like this will see them replicate their usual early-season results which means a comfortable over here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +75.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.