Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Tyler Boyd Over 5.5 Receptions (+110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
With the Cincinnati Bengals losing Ja’Marr Chase for an extended period, his target share in this offense will have to go somewhere. Chase was getting almost one-third of targets, and that’s a good way to overshadow a talent like Boyd, who is playing fantastic football in his limited role.
Deep-dive player metrics have Boyd as one of the highest-rated pass catchers in the entire NFL, so an expanded role should do wonders for his production. While Boyd has only gone over this receptions total twice this season, both were in his past two games. That tells me he is building a rapport with quarterback Joe Burrow, who happens to have a 133.2 QBR when targeting Boyd in the past four games.
This Cleveland Browns defense is also pretty vulnerable, ranking just 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass. And they’ve really only seen one top-tier passing offense on the season. The surging Bengals should be able to carve them up behind a big night from Boyd, cashing this prop with a nice plus-juice return.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Indiana Pacers +9 @ Brooklyn Nets (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBATV
What have the Brooklyn Nets done to deserve being this big of favorites against anyone? In addition to their 1-5 ATS record, the Nets have the second-worst plus/minus against the spread in the league. But since they’re still a highly public team, books hang numbers like this that smell like a trap.
Let’s be clear that I’m not a huge fan of the Indiana Pacers this season, but they did just crush Brooklyn on Saturday as double-digit underdogs. There’s certainly an argument to be made that the Nets will bounce back in the rematch, but by this margin seems to be asking too much.
The Pacers have been absolutely on fire from deep the past two games, and Brooklyn is the NBA’s worst 3-point percentage defense. That kind of advantage can keep the Pacers in this all night, or at least let them catch up late. Add in all the other troubles and off-court distractions for the Nets, and I’m more than willing to fade them on big numbers like this.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Utah Jazz Over 230 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on SportsNet RM
This total has come crashing down almost six points from the opener on news that Ja Morant might be out sick for another game tonight. But that really doesn’t bother me. The Grizzlies historically have had very little trouble scoring at a high level with their star sidelined. They already have the league’s highest plus/minus to the total, and have one over this number in five straight games.
That includes Saturday’s shootout with the Utah Jazz where they were without Morant, which only reinforces my confidence. Memphis keeps finding their way over totals due to one of the worst defenses in the league, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency and 26th in opponent floor percentage. While the Jazz are fairly average in shooting, they play at the NBA’s third-fastest pace, so they’ll have plenty of opportunities against that porous defense. That should equate to another over in a Grizzlies game on this discounted total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 921-765 ATS (+86.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.