Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Baylor/Texas Tech Over 61 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2
These teams have been epitomizing the traditional Big 12 shootout in conference play so far, and tonight should be no different. Combined together in their conference games, Baylor and Tech have played to an average total of 65.4 points. Coincidentally, I expected to see this total come in around that 65 levels, so this feels like a big discount.
It may be lower due to the Red Raiders going through a quarterback change, but new starter Behren Morton gives the offense a much more balanced look. They should be able to take advantage of a Baylor defense allowing 31.5 points per game in conference. But Baylor’s offense finally got on track in the ground game last week, so I anticipate them taking advantage of a typical weak Tech defense. That should create a game that goes up and down the field to cash the over.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Charlotte Hornets Over 233.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA
Golden State overs until further notice. That will be my strategy until they figure out the defense, especially against a fellow poor defensive team like Charlotte. These teams are a combined 9-1 to the over on the season, and while this is the highest total either have faced, I still think over is the correct play.
The Warriors enter this game with the top-scoring offense in the NBA, as well as the fastest-paced offense in the league. Charlotte is top-7 in both of those categories, too, so offense should not be a problem. But both squads are also bottom-10 in points allowed and are letting opponents shoot at a high percentage.
The Hornets are also on a back-to-back with travel, having given up 113 points to a bad Orlando team last night. The Warriors should exploit that all game and continue the over trend for both teams.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks Team Total Over 214.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK
The Thunder shocked everyone by winning consecutive games over the LA Clippers this week, but this game should see regression come for them. It should certainly come on the defensive end, as Dallas is looking unstoppable offensively. I had the Mavericks pegged as a strong defensive squad again this season, but it’s been the offense carrying them.
The Mavs lead the league in shooting percentage, offensive efficiency, and are just behind the Warriors for points per game. The times OKC has seen a top offense this season have resulted in them allowing 117.7 PPG, and the opponent going over this total each time. With Luka Doncic going absolutely wild to start the season, the Mavs should put up another offensive masterpiece to get over this isolated total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Luka Doncic Over 48.5 PAR (Points+Assists+Rebounds) (-110)
I mentioned how Luka has been on a serious tear, and the extent of it is eye-popping. After a triple-double on Thursday, it’s now 4-0 over this prop total on the year, with an average of 55 PAR. He just does it all for this team, and I’ll be riding this prop until something drastic changes.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 917-762 ATS (+85.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.