Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 First Quarter (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I gave this play out on TV last night, to a Lakers fan no less, so the Timberwolves better not let me down. I’m really not seeing how they would, given the stark differences between themselves and a pitiful Los Angeles squad. It’s getting ugly for the Lakers, winless on the season and winless in their four opening quarters. They’ve trailed by at least this margin every time, and are dead last in the NBA in first-quarter scoring.
Match that up with a Wolves team that puts up the most points in first quarters, and this looks fairly self-explanatory. They certainly flopped in the first quarter of the ugly loss on Monday, but they seemed to learn their lesson and redeemed themselves on Wednesday. Add in that the entire Big 3 for Los Angeles is on the injury report, and this should be another fast start for the Wolves.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Paolo Banchero Over 19.5 Points (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
The point prop total for Banchero has been ticking up night after night as the Rookie of the Year candidate continues to impress. But I found this at under 20 points to be a fairly key number. That’s because Banchero has scored in the 20s in every game this season, averaging 24.0 points per game.
He’s been the primary option offensively on a bad Orlando Magic team, and that should lead him to more success tonight. He’ll get to face a Charlotte Hornets team that’s pretty poor defensively, and has allowed 7 different players to score 20-plus points across their four games. Until the books drastically adjust Banchero’s props, he should continue to be a cash machine, including tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards -5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
We already saw this matchup to open the season, and now the rematch will give Washington the benefit of home court. That first meeting saw the Wizards earn a wire-to-wire victory where the final 7-point margin was deceptively close. And since then, these teams have definitely trended in opposite directions, with the Wizards looking like a factor in the East and the Pacers looking like a factor in the Wembanyama sweepstakes.
What’s most surprising to me about the Wizards is how they’re getting it done defensively, ranking 5th in the NBA for points allowed and defensive efficiency. While they aren’t lighting it up on offense, the porous and unmotivated Indiana defense should make it fairly easy for them again. The Pacers are in the middle of a long road trip, with the first two stops resulting in losses by 14 and 15 points. This should be another tough one for them against a sneaky-good Wizards team that’s still undervalued.
NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks/Milwaukee Bucks Under 223.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on MSG
I was shocked to see this total open at 225 points, but not shocked at all to see smart money immediately hit the under. Even at this lower number, I still think there’s value to be had because of how Milwaukee has looked this season. The Bucks are this young season’s top defensive squad so far, posting the best points allowed, defensive efficiency, and opponent shooting percentage numbers in the league.
My guess is that high-scoring results for the Knicks are contributing to this higher number, as Knicks games are 3-1 over this total. But two overtime games have contributed to that, as has facing several teams that are awful defensively.
The Bucks are excelling on defense somewhat out of necessity until Khris Middleton returns from injury, and that style has me believing they’ll create another under tonight. They control tempo very well and slow games down, ranking 26th in possessions per game. After they held Brooklyn under the century mark on Wednesday I was convinced, and I’ll be looking at Bucks unders until something changes.
Degenerates
MLB Philadelphia Phillies/Houston Astros First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-120): 7:05 PM CT on FOX
This World Series could go either way between two red-hot teams, but here I’m focused on a pitching matchup that should not disappoint. Aaron Nola should be in line for a bounce-back game for the Phillies after his lone outing in the NLCS did not go well. He faces a Houston lineup batting a collective .130 with a .345 OPS against him for their careers.
Not to be outdone, Justin Verlander for the Astros has allowed just a .184 average and .560 OPS in his career against Phillies hitters. And in some very strange foreshadowing, these teams met in the final regular season series with both pitchers getting starts. Nola pitched a scoreless 6.2 innings in his game, and Verlander went 5 scoreless the next night. That, plus the World Series stakes, is good enough for me to take this low under and expect a pitcher’s duel early.
Tiny Nick is 915-760 ATS (+84.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.