Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) NY Jets Team Total Over 18.5 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
This just shapes up as a bad spot for the Green Bay Packers, having to come home from London with no bye this week. They do not have history on their side, as in the 7 instances where teams face this scheduling spot, the opponent is 6-1 over their team total. And in all 7 of those instances, the team returning from London has been either tied or trailing in the 4th quarter of the game.
I’ve watched this Packers team closely against the New England Patriots and New York Giants in the past two weeks, and just don’t like what I’m seeing. They’ve allowed 24 and 27 points in those games against a rookie 3rd-string quarterback for the Pats and a Giants team decimated by injury at the skill positions.
The New York Jets are looking more than functional on offense with Zach Wilson back at the helm, clearing this number in both games since his return. Given what the history says about this spot and what my eyes say about the Packers, I really like the Jets to get over this isolated total.
NFL (1 Unit) Arizona Cardinals/Seattle Seahawks 2nd Half Over 24.5 (-110): 3:05 PM CT on FOX
If you’re fortunate enough for your book to allow 2nd half bets before the game starts, take this over as soon as possible. These teams should be going back and forth in the second half of this game as the slow-starting Cardinals torch the worst defense in football. The past two weeks have seen Seattle allow 30 and 22 points in the 2nd half, and now they face a Cardinals team likely to be in scramble mode.
If Arizona has another of its familiar slow starts, they’ll find themselves in a big hole against a Seahawks team that has figured out the offense behind Geno Smith, the league’s highest-rated passer. The Cardinals turn it on late, though, as the league’s 4th highest-scoring team after halftime. And in their two road games, Arizona has scored 52 total points after the break. If this game plays out according to how these teams tend to operate, then we should see plenty of scoring late to hit this over.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Kyler Murray Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Murray has averaged 27 rushing yards per game this season, so asking him to just barely beat that number should be easy in this situation. The Seahawks allow the most rushing yards per game, and are 28th in yards per attempt allowed. Key injuries also play a role here, with James Conner being out for Arizona likely to force Murray to use his legs more. The Seattle defensive line is also injury-riddled, making it more difficult for them to keep Murray in the pocket. Whether it’s on scrambles or designed runs, I see Murray easily getting over this prop total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 896-744 ATS (+81.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.