Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Darnell Mooney Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
Another Thursday night, another ugly matchup with an under environment making the prop market dicey. But this total just seems too low for Darnell Mooney, who looks like he and quarterback Justin Fields might finally be clicking. Both quarterback and receiver are trending in the right direction lately after nightmarish starts, but it’s those games that are still an anchor holding this number down.
The past three weeks have seen Mooney get a big bump in targets as Chicago drags their offense out of the Stone Age, and his yardage has ballooned as a result. In his past two games, he has connected with Fields on receptions of 39 and 56 yards, so another big play tonight would make this total very attainable.
Mooney is up against a mediocre-at-best Washington pass defense that is allowing 235 yards per game. The Commanders have also allowed the top receiver of their opponent to clear this number in every game, giving up 114.2 yards on average to them. That’s a lot of production that Mooney can step into, and it should result in him getting over this number that’s so low by comparison.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Temple Team Total Under 10.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
It’s a pretty low isolated total, but well-deserved for a team with as little offense as Temple can muster. The Owls have put up 75 total points this season which is good for 15 per game, but let’s take a deeper look at those stats. A full 58 of those points came against FCS Lafayette and then awful UMass, with 9 of those put up by the defense. Against their other three respectable opponents, the Owls have managed 17 total points, and they’ve put up all of 3 total points in their two road games.
And this UCF team is by far the toughest defense they’ve faced all season, ranking 12th in the country for points allowed. The Knights opened my eyes in their dominant defensive performance against a high-powered SMU offense last week, so slowing down this Temple team should be cake by comparison. The elite UCF run game should also factor in, with long and controlled drives that keep the clock running and the ball away from the Owls. I like having the hook on a fairly key number here, so I’ll count on the futility to continue for Temple tonight.
Degenerates
MLB Cleveland Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (+100): 6:37 PM CT on TBS
Cleveland is still going to have to prove me wrong in my belief that they just can’t score right now. It’s a bad time for a hitting slump, and I really don’t see any reason they’ll break out tonight. Unfortunately, the number has adjusted for their futility and leaves little room for error, but a small play is still worthwhile, in my opinion.
This should be a pitcher’s duel with Shane Bieber on one side and Nestor Cortes on the other, putting runs at a premium once again. The Guardians don’t have much experience against Cortes, but the times they’ve seen him have not gone well. Nasty Nestor faced Cleveland twice this season, allowing 3 total runs and a .100 on-base average. So until Cleveland gets out of this drought, I’m only interested in looking at their team totals to keep falling short.
Tiny Nick is 892-742 ATS (+79.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.