Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110): 7:37 PM CT on FS1

I can’t ignore the plus-juice price on this prop, especially with how Turner has looked coming into tonight. Turner has owned the San Diego Padres all season, punctuated by a massive home run last night that was accompanied by a double. While he might not get six total bases again here, it’s a solid bet that he’ll find his way to more than one.

On the year, Turner has a .316 average, .481 slugging percentage, and .830 OPS against the Padres. And in his past 7 games against them, the Dodger shortstop has 12 hits, including 6 extra-base hits. He also has excellent numbers against Padres starter Yu Darvish, posting a .353 average and 1.000 OPS for his career. The conditions are ripe for continued hot hitting from Turner here, so I’m liking this prop and its juicy return.

Degenerates

MLB Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475): 7:37 PM CT on FS1

The home run prop market is a bit speculative, otherwise, I would’ve loved to make this a lock pick. But why not toss a little pizza money on Machado to go yard here at this massive return? After all, he’s had a lot of success against Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw, mashing 3 home runs in 35 career at-bats.

With the implied odds of a payout like this at 17.3%, it doesn’t quite align with Machado homering in 9% of his at-bats against Kershaw. But I’ll make up the difference there by pointing out two factors. The first is that this is “postseason Clayton Kershaw,” a historically sub-par version of the Dodger ace. The second is that since the start of September, Machado is homering once every 3.7 games, making him due. The hitting conditions in LA are ideal, with a breeze blowing out of Dodger Stadium, so I’ll take a shot that Machado puts one out tonight.

Tiny Nick is 891-742 ATS (+79.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.