Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders @ KC Chiefs -7 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

In full transparency, I have this as a pick in the Circa Millions contest to make it a 4-1 week, so I’m rooting pretty hard for Kansas City tonight. But I just don’t see a world where the Chiefs do anything but take it to the Raiders here, just as they have consistently for years. Since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, the Chiefs are 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS against the Raiders, with an average score of 37-19.

That’s some pretty drastic dominance, and I think the Chiefs are set up well to continue it here. The Raiders should have no answer for a KC offense that just shredded the excellent Buccaneers defense. Remember also that the Raiders just got done allowing the Broncos to have their best day offensively last week.

I don’t buy the narrative that this could be a sandwich spot for the Chiefs – they already had one of those that taught them a lesson. Kansas City took money early on that proved sharps weren’t afraid of laying 7, so I’ll do it here in what should be another dominant performance.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Kansas City Team Total Over 30.5 (-110)

I mentioned above the average score for Kansas City against the Raiders the past four seasons is 37 points. Last season the Chiefs hung 41 and 48 points in two games where they took their foot off the gas. It probably boils down to a matter of whether they have the desire to get over this total, not the capability. With the Chiefs rolling offensively and facing a porous defense, I think we see them approach that 4-year average at the least.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Josh Jacobs Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Raider running back has seen his usage in the passing game take off the past couple of weeks. That’s likely due to the team’s fast-paced games where they find themselves in a negative game script. That should be the case again here if the Chiefs dictate the game.

Fortunately for Jacobs and this prop, Kansas City allows the most targets, receptions, and receiving yards to opposing running backs.  This total is below the per-game average of 22.5 for Jacobs, so this defense and situation should allow him to hit the over.

Bonus Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+105)

The Raiders are making good use of their star receiver this season, getting him an average of 11.7 targets per game. He should be matched up with L’Jarius Sneed for most of the game, who has struggled in coverage. Again, the anticipated negative game script comes into play here, with the Raiders likely to be playing catch-up. The Chiefs have allowed four touchdowns to the number one receiver of their opponents this season, so with enough targets, I see Adams finding paydirt as well.

Degenerates

NFL Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

The juice is worth the squeeze here for me, as an excellent plus-money return seems relatively likely to pay off if the game plays out how I expect. The Chiefs love to throw early and often, and Mahomes loves to show out on Monday Night Football, where he also happens to be 4-1-1 ATS.

Mahomes just got done tossing three scores against a vastly superior Bucs defense last week, and Las Vegas has struggled against the pass already this season. The Raiders have allowed seven passing touchdowns on the year, so against perhaps the best in the game, it’s worth a small play to get this juicy return.

Tiny Nick is 889-740 ATS (+79.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.