Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teasers (-110; Odds via Caesars)
New Orleans Saints +11 @ KC Chiefs: 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
With how underdogs – and especially sizable ones like the Saints are tonight – have been barking this season, there’s no way you can convince me to lay more than a couple of points in today’s NFL. I’m especially not laying a big number with the Chiefs, who have never been a profitable ATS team with Patrick Mahomes if they’re more than a field goal favorite.
And Mahomes is just 11-11 ATS at home in primetime games, so being able to tease this spread into double digits makes me pretty comfortable. I’m not entirely sure who the Saints are as a team yet, but they can run the ball and that’s been KC’s weakness for years, so I think they can control this game enough to keep it inside the adjusted number.
New Orleans Saints/KC Chiefs Under 49.5
If the Saints are going to run the ball, which they should be able to with effectiveness as the 7th-best rush offense in the league, then that can keep the clock running and shorten this game. Arrowhead has for years been an unders factory, as inflated totals due to the Mahomes effect tend to fall short. In Andy Reid’s tenure in KC, the under hits at a 65% clip when the Chiefs are favored.
Tonight’s lower total is definitely taking that into account, along with the Chiefs offense being bitten hard by the injury bug. But to move this number up and through the very key numbers of 48 and 49 creates a lot of value, and I don’t see a primetime game between these teams reaching that level of scoring.
MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.25 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Kareem Hunt Over 61.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Derek Carr Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.25 Unit – Chris Olave Alt Over 5.5 Receptions (+125)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +81.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.