Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Indianapolis Colts/Denver Broncos Under 42.5 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on Prime Video

I could make the case for Denver to cover here, but this is a spot where the under makes far too much sense. Both of these teams excel at not putting points on the board. Indianapolis is dead last in points per game and Denver is second to last, making these teams a combined 7-1 to the under this year. They both have sputtering offenses that have not lived up to preseason expectations, and they’re both without their respective star running backs.

Neither quarterback is inspiring much confidence these days, particularly Matt Ryan who looks pretty much washed up at this point. Add in that Denver’s defense is legit, and I question whether the Colts reach double digits today. Unders continue to be the dominant trend in the NFL, especially in primetime games, and Thursday nights have trended under for years. With these two floundering offenses continually stalling out, this game should be another low-scoring affair.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Courtland Sutton Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

You don’t usually want to play props to the over when the game is an under environment, but this is an exception in my mind. To move the ball, Denver will have to throw against a Colts defense that’s strong against the run.

With Javonte Williams lost for the season and Melvin Gordon having a severe case of fumble-itis, expect the Broncos to take to the air. Russell Wilson’s favorite target should benefit, especially against a prop total that’s 21 yards below his per-game average. The Colts’ secondary is nothing to write home about, so I’m expecting Sutton to get over this number with ease.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Russell Wilson Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Hopefully, Wilson is willing to do something dangeRuss, like take off and run a few times in this game. His rushing has increased recently as he’s seemed to take matters into his own hands more for this lifeless offense. With the Denver running back situation not looking good, expect Wilson to get over this number as he has the past two games.

Degenerates

NFL Matt Ryan Over 0.5 Interceptions (-125): 7:20 PM CT on Prime Video

Sticking with my diagnosis of Ryan being washed up, I’m looking for him to throw another pick in this game. I don’t like laying much juice in the prop market, so I’ll leave it as a degenerate play, but it makes plenty of sense. In a tough environment on a short week, facing constant pressure from a good defense, the quarterback with the second-most interceptions in the league is likely to toss one to the wrong uniform again here.

Tiny Nick is 879-734 ATS (+78.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.