Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Vikings/NY Giants Under 41.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Well Vikings fans, it’s not JJ McCarthy under center like you all hoped, and I’m not sure if that’s a drag on the offensive potential or not. Given that Sam Darnold once saw ghosts in this very stadium, I’m not terribly bullish on Minnesota’s ability to put up points.
What I do know is that Giants home games are where overs go to die, with a 24-8-1 record to the under since 2020. That includes a 17-6-1 record to the under when Daniel Jones starts for New York, who now has to run an offense without Saquon Barkley. I do think the Vikings defense will show improvement, and the Giants should be easy to hold down, so that should result in another Giants home under.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Falcons Team Total Under 22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
The Falcons might finally have a quarterback and be rid of the Arthur Smith debacle, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll erupt offensively today. I think it could take some time for that new offense to gel, and for Kirk Cousins to be fully comfortable coming off his injury.
They also have the difficult task of going up against arguably the best defense in the league, as the Steelers are improved and fully healthy on that side of the ball. With all summer to prep for shutting Cousins and Atlanta down, I expect a Pittsburgh team that needs to win with defense to hold the Falcons below this team total.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Jacksonville Jaguars/Miami Dolphins Over 49.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
We know what kind of firepower Miami brings to the table today, and their fully healthy offense that’s had months to prepare should go off. I’m expecting a rough season on defense for the Jaguars, who have a ton of inexperienced starters in the secondary for the Dolphins to target.
But this just has to be the breakout season for Trevor Lawrence, and it should start today with a big game. The Jags offense is loaded at every position, and well-suited to win shootouts that are necessitated by the poor defense. With the Florida humidity also a factor that can wear out defensive players today, look for both teams to throw all over the yard and clear this total.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Houston Texans -3 @ Indianapolis Colts (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
This is what betting with a 24% chance of success looks like, or, an 18% chance depending on your sample size. Laying points on the road in a Week 1 divisional game gets you to the window just 7 out of 29 times since 2010, and 2 of 11 times since 2018, so I’m trying to thread a small needle here. But I think the Texans are the team to buck the trend for a couple reasons.
First is that the Colts are notoriously slow starters, having gone 1-14-1 ATS in their opening game since 2008, including 2-13-1 straight up. Second is the maturation of this Houston team, which won behind elite quarterback and receiver play last season. They’ve upgraded the skill positions this year, but vastly improved the defense that will grow under DeMeco Ryans’ tutelage. I’m expecting the Colts to have one of the worst defenses in the league, so I just don’t see them getting enough stops to keep Houston from being a rare divisional road winner this week.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Arizona Cardinals/Buffalo Bills Over 45.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
There’s some wind expected in Buffalo today, and that’s been driving this total down as sharps follow their windy unders system. All I see is a better and easier number for these two offenses to clear, as this has a great chance to be a back-and-forth shootout. I’m very suspicious of the Buffalo defense this season, as they’ve lost key pieces to both front office moves and preseason injuries.
Those losses are in areas where the Cardinals are built to exploit now that Kyler Murray has had all offseason to work with some excellent weapons. But the Arizona defense should be the absolute worst in the league, easy pickings for the new-look Bills offense to get their feet under them. I think this game could get wild, with the Cardinals potentially being live dogs, and that means plenty of points on the board.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Tennessee Titans +4 @ Chicago Bears (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Tennessee has been a popular underdog pick this week, and with good reason. I really like the number here at more than a field goal, and think a revamped Titans team with a new coach and offensive system can threaten Chicago here. The Titans are in the 21st century now with a pass-first offense instead of handing it to Derrick Henry all game, and that can allow them to test a Chicago secondary which was the weakness of a defense that closed last season strong.
And don’t just assume that Caleb Williams steps into a favorable situation here and will see his career take off from the first game. A rookie quarterback has not won their first start in the NFL since David Carr (that’s David, not Derek, gotta go farther back), and in history are just 7-20 ATS in those games. The Titans are live dogs in this game, and I’ll gladly take the points here.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Carolina Panthers +4 @ New Orleans Saints (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
This time I’m following the divisional underdogs trends that didn’t dissuade me from backing Houston. Overall in Week 1 since 2014, underdogs in divisional games are covering at a 71% clip, with a plus-4.8 average ATS margin. I also think the Saints are a sneaky candidate to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, and why not with Dennis Allen as head coach who has the worst record of all active head coaches.
The Panthers are not likely to make this game or their season pretty by any means, but this is still too big of a number against a bad team inside the division. New coach Dave Canales has fixed broken quarterbacks before, so Bryce Young should show improvement, and that should help them keep it close or take it outright in this game.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders/LA Chargers Under 40 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on CBS
If you like watching teams hand the ball off, this is the game for you. Both Jim Harbaugh and Antonio Pierce are old school coaches who want to run the ball and play defense, which is exactly what I expect them to do to open the season. Harbaugh didn’t do much to upgrade the receiving corps for a reason: he doesn’t expect to use it, especially not with Justin Herbert missing the whole preseason.
And with his guy in charge of a defense loaded with talent, I expect the Chargers to finally start putting it together on that side of the ball. But the Raiders will have a sneaky-good defense as well, especially up front where they can slow the LA run game. Vegas also has an excellent offensive line to run the ball behind, and I expect a heavy dose of Zamir White all game long. That should keep the clock running and hold this under a total that has been crashing all week.
Week 1 Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Aaron Jones Over 74.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+130)
0.25 Unit – Devin Singletary Over 69.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Tua Tagovailoa Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Over 23.5 Pass Completions (+100)
0.5 Unit – Evan Engram Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Evan Engram Anytime TD (+170)
0.5 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Tyjae Spears Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Tyjae Spears Over 2.5 Receptions (+100)
0.25 Unit – Calvin Ridley Anytime TD (+235)
0.75 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Kyler Murray Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – James Conner Anytime TD (+160)
0.5 Unit – Jacoby Brissett Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chuba Hubbard Over 71.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chase Brown Over 51.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Alt Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (+150)
0.75 Unit – Zamir White Over 68.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jalen McMillan Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Cade Otton Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions (+125)
0.25 Unit – Austin Ekeler Over 3.5 Receptions (+130)
0.5 Unit – Austin Ekeler Over 51.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Sam LaPorta Alt Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (+110)
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx/Washington Mystics Over 161 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN3
The Lynx are simply scoring too well right now, especially on the road, to not look to the over when they take the floor. Their tendency to cash overs on the road is shown in the season series with this Mystics squad, as they combined for 141 and 147 points in two games at Target Center, then went to DC and rang up 182 points just a few weeks ago.
Minnesota has gone over this total in all 5 of their road games since the season started back up, and are averaging 88.4 PPG in that stretch. With the Mystics also playing great offensively in recent games, plus being at home where they tend to shoot the lights out, look for this one to easily clear a total that’s based on Minnesota’s defense not offense.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +101.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.