Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Wings/NY Liberty Under 174.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video

The Liberty have been flashing the defense lately, holding opponents to just 69.7 PPG since the season started back up. That includes some elite offensive teams, so I would not view it as any kind of fluke. This rematch from Tuesday is a game where I think the total has gotten severely inflated, and is based on the kind of game Dallas has been playing recently, not New York, who should dictate the style here. And their style has resulted in 10 straight games going under this total. With Betnijah Laney-Hamilton still out and Sabrina Ionescu possibly missing tonight’s game, look for this to stay under the total as has been the trend around the league lately.

Degenerates

MLB Cincinnati Reds/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 7.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT

Just because Paul Skenes is pitching today, that doesn’t mean we’re in for a low-scoring game. Skenes has not been his normal self the past few starts, with his famous velocity coming down and him looking like he’s laboring. He entered August with a ridiculous 1.90 ERA, but this month has compiled a 4.15 ERA so teams are starting to capitalize on some weakness. I also think the Pirates can get to Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo here, as they hit lefties like him better and Lodolo has compiled a 7.52 ERA over his past 6 starts.

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Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.