Locks
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals/Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 12:10 PM CT on MLB Network
Despite Kansas City sending another All-Star to the mound today, this total has been flying up since last night. A lot of it has to do with Louie Varland starting in place of Bailey Ober for the Twins, and I think the Royals will have an easy time with him today. Varland just doesn’t inspire confidence with his 6.23 ERA at Target Field, especially not against one of the best offenses in baseball.
But I think the Twins continue their hot streak at the plate after knocking around another Royals All-Star starter last night. Putting the Twins at home against a lefty like Cole Ragans is a recipe for them to continue scoring like they have the past two games against KC, so this lower total should be well within reach.
MLB (1 Unit) Colorado Rockies/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:40 PM CT on COLR
Not only do we get Jordan Montgomery making another home start, but the Diamondbacks get to tee off on a bad starter and horrendous bullpen all game. I will never stop believing Montgomery is the ultimate gas can at home, what with his 8.14 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, and .364 opponent on-base average. Even the Rockies can and should have plenty of success against that kind of meatballer, and the proof is in the results of his home starts averaging 12.2 runs per game this season. But I would also expect Rockies rookie Tanner Gordon to get knocked around again, along with the league’s most generous bullpen, en route to double digit runs here.
MLB (0.5 Unit Each) Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) & Jake Burger Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on NBCS-PHI
I’m sticking with what works here after these two continued to rake last night with two singles for Edwards and another home run for Burger. They’ll get to face another subpar starter for Philadelphia as rookie Tyler Phillips takes the mound. The main weakness for Phillips this season has been righthanded bats like Edwards and Burger, allowing a .306 average and .978 OPS to that split. With both of these Marlins stars better against righties like Phillips, I’m confident they both stay hot on this prop tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Frankie Montas Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
Montas hasn’t exactly been what Milwaukee expected when they traded for him, as his volatility has been on display so far in a Brewers uniform. He’s the kind of pitcher who can hold a team to a couple hits, or scatter 9 hits across many innings, but his history against the Dodgers can’t be ignored here. Montas has allowed a cumulative .316 average and 1.059 OPS to LA’s bats in his career, and with the Dodgers back to full strength now that Mookie Betts has returned, I think they tag him for plenty of hits tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +100.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.