Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers +0.5 First 5 Innings @ NY Yankees (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:35 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
There’s a lefthanded starter going for Texas in this game, which is just about all you need to know. Time after time, in recent games and over the course of the season, the Yankees just flop against lefties and I don’t think things get better for them today. Andrew Heaney is having a solid enough season to justify this in my mind, as replacement-level lefty starters have held New York in check this week.
And the Rangers should be able to produce here against Marcus Stroman, who has been roughed up all summer and owns a 5.34 ERA in home games. I would not be surprised to see Texas leading after 5 innings here, but I’ll take the small amount of insurance that allows a cash in case of a tie.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles First 5 Innings ML @ Tampa Bay Rays (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 12:40 PM CT on MLB Network
As recently as a couple years ago, Tampa owned the Orioles so badly that you could blindly bet the Rays every which way when they played. That has flipped on its head now, and the Orioles are now the ones taking Tampa’s lunch money and stuffing them in a locker. Baltimore leads the season series 8-1, which also happens to be their record for the first 5 innings in the series.
I think this is a pitching matchup that sneakily favors Baltimore again, as they should be able to get to lefty Jeff Springs early in this game. Tampa meanwhile should struggle against Albert Suarez, who already dominated them in a start this season and puts the Rays in their much worse split as a righty. Baltimore is also 3rd in first-five scoring this season while Tampa is 29th, so look for the O’s to continue their dominance today.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Christopher Sanchez Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on ARID
Sanchez has fallen off considerably since garnering Cy Young buzz back in June. His starts since the calendar flipped to July have seen him allow 6.8 hits per game, with a 4-2 record over this prop where the 2 outliers both came against a depleted Dodgers lineup. Otherwise he’s been tagged for lots of hits, and now he has to go up against the best offense against lefties like him in all of baseball.
The D’backs have the best batting average against lefties which is obviously the key here, and have peppered Phillies starters for 9, 7, and 6 hits in this series. At the plus-juice return here, I’ll take a shot that Arizona can continue their excellence against what appears to be a vulnerable lefty.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +101.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.