Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Houston Astros/Boston Red Sox Over 10 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on FS1
The Red Sox have consistently found themselves in some wild slugfests since the All-Star break, and I think the conditions are ripe for another today. Boston’s 19 games to open the second half of the season have averaged 13.5 runs with a 14-4-1 record over this total. Their starting pitching has been an issue, as has the bullpen, which they’ll hand the ball to today.
The Sox have a below-average bullpen so the Astros should continue to hit well against them today. But Houston will need plenty of offense with Spencer Arrighetti being so unreliable on the road. The young righty has a 6.61 ERA and 1.81 WHIP away from home, and the hot Boston bat should give him trouble in small Fenway. With the wind blowing heavily out to right-center on a warm day in Boston, look for both offenses to have plenty of success and justify this high total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers/NY Yankees First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 3:35 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
As scary as the Yankees lineup looks on paper, just put them up against a lefthanded pitcher and watch them wilt. Look no further than the other night’s game against replacement-level lefty Tyler Anderson, who held them to a single run in his 6 innings of work. They’ll have to face lefty Cody Bradford today, who isn’t anything special but should continue to confound this lineup in their laughably bad split.
But I don’t think the Rangers get much done either against Gerrit Cole, who hasn’t been himself, but there have been flashes of the old version. That also puts the Rangers into their weaker hitting split, so until these teams prove they can produce against the type of pitcher that gives them trouble, I’ll be expecting limited scoring.
MLB (0.75 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/KC Royals Over 9 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC
Speaking of teams that are crushing overs since the All-Star break, the Royals are right up there with Boston in terms of consistency. The past 13 Royals games are averaging 10.9 runs per game and are 10-3 over this total, plus they are the highest-scoring team with the best batting average in home games. The cross-state rivals have cleared this total in all three meetings this season, including when both of tonight’s starting pitchers took the mound.
Michael Wacha for KC has had plenty of issues against the Cardinals, with a .344 average and 1.102 OPS allowed to their bats in his career. And while Andre Pallante has been good on the road, he has benefited from facing weaker opponents, not the elite home offense of the Royals. Both of these offenses are also very good against righthanded pitching, so expect this one to find its way over the moderate total tonight.
Degenerates
NFL Preseason Las Vegas Raiders/Minnesota Vikings Under 39.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on NFL Network
Unders have been the story so far in this first week of the preseason, going 5-0 the past couple of nights with just 26.2 PPG on average. Now we get a game between two teams that I suspect want to get this and every preseason game over with as quickly as possible. Kevin O’Connell showed little interest in being competitive during his first couple preseasons, going 0-6 with a 4-2 record under this total. While the defense has not been good, what we’ll see from the Raiders is likely a preview of their run-heavy offensive approach. I think that keeps the clock running and the points limited here.
Tiny Nick has gained +100.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.