Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/NY Yankees Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 12:05 PM CT on MLB Network

Just like last night’s 13-run slugfest, I think today’s game has plenty of potential to get over despite a couple of big-name pitchers starting. When Jose Berrios starts on the road, I’m always looking to fade him in some way, and his elevated ERA, WHIP, and opponent on-base numbers away from home. With how hot this Yankees lineup is, particularly against righties like Berrios, I expect them to tee off today and look to avenge last night’s loss.

But the way Toronto has been hitting lately can’t be ignored, especially with Carlos Rodon starting today. Rodon has compiled an 11.00 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and .375 opponent on-base average in two starts against the Jays this season. With those starters having their issues and neither bullpen inspiring much confidence, I see another over in a season series that’s produced 10.9 runs per game.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers/Washington Nationals Over 9 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on MLB Network

What immediately caught my attention in this game was the weather, with a big wind blowing out on a hot day in DC. That should be great hitting conditions for two sneaky offenses to rack up the runs against a couple starters I don’t trust. I think the Brewers will have success against DJ Herz, who struggles against teams that can actually hit righties, which Milwaukee can. But the Brewers will give up plenty here behind Aaron Civale whose road struggles have followed him to Milwaukee after the trade deadline. With the right conditions for runs, I expect both offenses to have enough success to reach this total.

Degenerates

MLB Garrett Crochet Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-145; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I’m not a big proponent of laying this kind of juice on anything, but the baseball prop market sometimes leaves you no choice. Besides, value is value, and I don’t see how Crochet doesn’t surrender plenty of base knocks tonight. The All-Star lefty has been filthy at times this season, but hasn’t had his best stuff in recent weeks.

He’s allowed at least 4 hits in 6 straight normal starts, with the lone exception being just before the All-Star break in a managed outing of just two innings. And his last visit to Target Field did not go so well, getting rocked for 7 hits and 5 earned runs. With the Twins still leading baseball in batting average against lefties and breaking out of their slump the past two games, I think they pile up the hits regardless of how many times they cross the plate.

Bonus Degenerate: Willi Castro Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165; Odds via DraftKings)

I’m going to the alt number here with Castro, as if anyone is going to have success against Crochet it will be the Twins second baseman. Castro has faced Crochet 6 times, piling up 4 hits including a home run and double. With two hits including a homer last night, look for Willi to stay hot in this one.

Tiny Nick has gained +97.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.