Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles ML @ Cleveland Guardians (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on MASN

This will be the debut start in an Orioles uniform for Trevor Rogers, who Baltimore paid big to acquire and I think pays off right away tonight. The big lefty was quietly having a great summer down in Miami, as the lowly Marlins managed to win 5 of his past 7 starts.

Rogers allowed more than 2 runs just twice in his June and July starts, so if the Orioles are able to pair that kind of pitching with their hot offense, this will be a great acquisition for them. While this will be a tough game between two division leaders, I trust the Baltimore offense and Rogers over a Guardians team that has held this season together on duct tape and luck, so give me the O’s here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) KC Royals First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

This total, and more specifically the juice attached to it, doesn’t make a lot of sense when compared to the prop market for this game. The Tigers are starting rookie Keider Montero here, who has been rocked in 3 straight games and 5 of his 7 starts on the season.

Montero has earned 4 or more runs in those 5 rough appearances, and books expect it to continue with his prop total of 2.5 earned runs heavily juiced to the over. But he doesn’t last long in games, with his average start lasting just over 5 innings, so there should be an expectation that the Royals tag him for plenty of runs in the first 5 innings. While I expect both this total and that prop to go over, I’m going with the far more advantageous juice here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Sonny Gray Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+130; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on MLB Network

Letting Sonny Gray walk is starting to look better and better for the Twins as he implodes over the summer. Gray had an awful July where he compiled a 6.75 ERA, and his past 5 starts have seen him get tagged with at least 3 earned runs. His best start of those was against the Cubs where he still allowed 3 earned runs at home.

Now he has to face them on the road where his ERA balloons to 5.29 and 5 of his past 6 starts have seen him go over this total. The Cubs offense can be iffy at times, but they’ve turned it on the past 5 games and have decent history against Gray, so I’ll happily take a shot on this prop at such a juicy return.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +96.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.