Locks
WNBA (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty -2.5 First Quarter @ Chicago Sky (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV
This is a bad spot for the Sky to be running into the Liberty juggernaut. Chicago is one of two teams that New York did not have a first quarter lead against so far this season, ending the opening frame of their first meeting in a tie. But Chicago was playing much better at that time, and are just 1-3 since with the only win against the lowly Sparks.
And the key for me is all the distractions they’ve had since the shove of Caitlin Clark in their last game on Saturday, making me think they won’t be as prepared for a hot Liberty team right away tonight. New York now has a plus-7.4 average first quarter margin on the season, and with these teams headed in opposite directions, the Liberty should pounce early again.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Mets @ Washington Nationals First 5 Innings Moneyline (+100; Odd via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on SNY
I love the disrespect that Washington keeps getting. How are they an underdog, at home, against a worse team, with their best starter on the mound? Don’t overthink it, just take the better team with the better pitcher, at least when you can count on him being in the game.
Trevor Williams has been elite this season, helping to boost a Nationals team that’s not as bad as you think. He’s been especially good at home, posting a 1.69 ERA and .173 opponent on-base average, plus the Nats have not lost any of his home starts or trailed after 5 innings. I think the Mets are due to come apart at the seams any minute now, and should struggle here as Washington claims an early lead.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles -1.5 @ Toronto Blue Jays (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:07 PM CT on MASN2
It’s Corbin Burnes against Bowden Francis, with a standard juice price on the run line, how much more in-depth analysis is really required here. Francis is a relief pitcher who is coming off the IL today and should get crushed by this excellent Orioles offense. His other attempts at starting games have gone very poorly, compiling a 12.96 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in those games. Corbin Burnes meanwhile is in Cy Young contention and faces a Jays team with plenty of hitting issues right now. Go ahead baseball, be ridiculous enough to take this giant mismatch and flip it upside down.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): First Inning Over 0.5 Runs (+105; Odds via BetMGM)
Today is the day! It’s been 25 straight games for Toronto where nobody has scored in the first inning. That’s caused a big shift in juice to where you can now get plus money on the YRFI despite an 8.5 run total for the full game. I’ll take it because I expect Francis to get lit up from the start tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Ty Blach Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:40 PM CT on COLR
Ty Blach might just be the best pitcher Colorado has. He’s definitely been their best at home where it’s so difficult to be a pitcher, with a solid 3.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his 4 starts this season. He’s also been pitching deeper into games as the season progresses, and this number reflects more of an average start for him instead of where he’s trending. After the Rockies had a lot of innings eaten by the bullpen last night they should lean on Blach to absorb more tonight, plus the Cincinnati bats are due for regression, and that should get him over this outs total in the process.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2312-2124 ATS (+89.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.