Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 103 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on TNT

I’m sad. Very, very sad. But I’m not going to let the sadness keep me from going back to the old reliable team total bet tonight, especially at this better number. It’s desperation time and a full effort is coming, hopefully with improved play from the stars. That’s the key for me, as Minnesota has gotten nothing close to quality performances out of Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns, yet they’ve gone over their team total twice and lost by a combined 4 points. I don’t believe this series is over by any stretch, and going after this lower number is a good way to bet on that belief.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Moneyline (+110; Odds via Caesars)

The most disappointing part of the 0-2 hole the Wolves find themselves in might be how they’ve wasted such strong starts. I think the desperation factor gets them off to another quality start tonight, especially since the Mavericks are much slower starters. Dallas has a minus-5 Net Rating in first halves during the playoffs, compared to plus-1.7 for Minnesota. Those halftime leads in the first two games were no fluke, and I think they can replicate it tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2297-2116 ATS (+85.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.