Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN
Of course I’m backing my Wolves here, what did you expect? This might as well be an elimination game because Denver is not coming back from down 3-0, so it could be tighter than the typical Game 3 of a given series. But what the Wolves did to the Nuggets on the road, twice, while missing Rudy Gobert in Game 2, ranks as maybe the most surprising thing I’ve seen from this franchise in my life (and I mean good surprising, not passing on Steph Curry twice surprising).
With Gobert back in the fold tonight the Wolves can take that suffocating Game 2 defense to new heights. Denver’s offensive efficiency and shooting took big steps back on the road this season, plus they’re already cold and facing the best defense in the league. I just don’t think they can score enough against that defense in a raucous Target Center to stay inside this number, and the Wolves should move to the brink of the West finals.
NBA (0.75 Unit) New York Knicks Team Total Over 108.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
The Knicks have met the Pacers 5 times this season, so that’s 20 quarters of basketball. In those 20 quarters, the Pacers have scored 30-plus points 14 times yet are only 2-3 in the series. That means they can’t stop anything and the Knicks can score at will on this defense.
It will get considerably tougher tonight with how shorthanded the Knicks are, but if the Pacers somehow run away with this game then New York’s scoring should get dragged upward as a result. The Knicks are 5-0 over this team total in the meetings this season with 119.4 PPG on average, so look for them to take advantage of Indiana’s poor defense again.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Josh Hart Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The Knicks are going to need every bit of Josh Hart they can get tonight. The do-it-all guard for New York will see even more minutes and usage in a shorter rotation here, raising his floor for every stat category. With totals of 41 and 45 on this prop the first two games, plus an average of 36.0 in the postseason, look for Hart to stuff the stat sheet again tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2280-2094 ATS (+88.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.