Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Kevin Durant Over 34.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

It’s all about usage rate here in my opinion, and Durant will get one of the highest workloads of any player in this game. The Suns bet everything on their first unit being unstoppable, and in the playoffs that means they have to keep their stars on the floor even longer to avoid bench minutes from no-name players. That resulted in KD seeing 44 minutes per game in their last series, and that’s plenty of potential opportunity for him to get to this number.

I don’t think Denver has a defender to slow Durant down in the points department, and he’ll have to be a big contributor on the glass against a tall Nuggets team. He dropped 29 and 30 points against the Suns in two late-season matchups and is averaging 28.4 in the playoffs, so add in the needed rebounding and he should find his way over this prop.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Phoenix Suns/Denver Nuggets Over 227 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Plenty of minutes for the elite starting lineup of Phoenix only helps scoring, especially if they get worn out in the Denver altitude. That should create weakened effort on defense that the Nuggets can exploit with one of the most efficient offenses in the league. It helps that Phoenix is one of the better over bets on the road this season, plus they allowed 126 and 128 points in their two games at Denver this year. Despite it being the second round of the playoffs, there’s just too much elite offensive potential from both teams to try to sweat an under here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees Team Total Over 3.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

The Yankees have been pretty frustrating to their backers lately, and it seems a lot of their offensive production this season has come in very short spurts. They’re also very pedestrian in just about every offensive category against right-handed pitching like they’ll see today. But the Yanks also have a lot of experience against Nathan Eovaldi from his days in Boston. They own a collective .301 average and .762 OPS against the Ranger starter who has seen most of his starts turn into slugfests this year. And this number is just naturally too low because of New York being underdogs, so while there’s some juice attached to it I’m seeing enough from the Yankee bats to get over.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays/Chicago White Sox Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI

There are some inconsistencies popping up with the Tampa offense, but the only two true slugfests in their past eight games came against Chicago. They seem to have a lot of the White Sox pitching figured out, and got back to their usual ways of crushing righties on Thursday night. Here they’ll get the struggling Lance Lynn, who has been far worse in his home starts and could be in trouble again if the Tampa bats stay hot.

One of those two recent slugfests also came in a game where Calvin Faucher opened and was knocked around by the White Sox right away. I keep waiting for this Chicago offense to live up to its potential, but that’s also creating discounted totals to take advantage of and they know how to get to Faucher. So with a big Chicago wind blowing out to left-center today, both teams should be able to plate plenty of runs and cash this over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1240-1091 ATS (+70.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.