Locks
NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks +5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV
This spread is in line with what Cleveland was laying in Games 1 and 2, back when the assumption was that the Cavs are better than the Knicks. That sure doesn’t look like the case anymore with New York 3-1 both straight up and ATS in this series, beating the number by an average 5.8 point margin. So simply put, this is too many points, and Cleveland really hasn’t played in a way to justify being a moderate-sized favorite.
The Cavs just can’t shoot or score right now, especially the role players that New York is willing to leave open for shots. That’s what is creating these low-scoring rock fights, and in a style of game like that I definitely want to be taking the points. With Jalen Brunson outplaying Donovan Mitchell once again in the playoffs, and Julius Randle primed for a bounce back at any moment, the Knicks have the better team, the momentum, and my support on the number.
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/Milwaukee Bucks Over 219.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on NBATV
The only thing to fear here is sudden and drastic regression from Miami, whose offensive struggles this season create a metrics profile that forces these totals down. But they have the most effective offense of any team in the playoffs so far, and have been the driver of this series going 4-0 to the over. This game might be a little different in how it finds its way over, as I’d expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to shake off the rust and lead an explosive offense. But until Milwaukee changes their defensive approach to finally guard the perimeter, the Heat are going to keep putting up big numbers that make this total too low.
MLB (1 Unit) Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
The Rays got shut out yesterday for the first time this season, which only proves that baseball has the weirdest variance of any sport. I don’t believe for one second that it was any kind of sign that Tampa is falling off, or their red-hot hitting against righties is cooling. The underlying metrics are still ridiculously strong, and I think they bounce back offensively today against another right-handed starter.
Hunter Brown is going to be an excellent pitcher, but he’s given up plenty of runs to both strong and weak offenses so far this season. He’ll face a Rays team looking to bounce back from only their fourth game of being held under 3 runs, and the previous 3 times saw them average 8.3 runs the next game. The Astros are also hitting well, averaging 5.5 runs per game in their past 3 series, and will face the typical Tampa opener-to-bullpen game tonight. That’s enough for me to expect plenty of offense here that gets this game over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1233-1089 ATS (+67.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.