Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 105.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
The next time the Milwaukee Bucks locate shooters and play some three-point defense in this series it’ll be the first time. Until then, Miami should continue to exploit what’s looked like a terrible defense through three games. The Heat are shooting an incredible 50% from downtown in this series, and it’s a different player having a big game each time.
That’s allowed them to average 124.3 PPG in the postseason series and 115.1 in all games against Milwaukee this year, with a 6-1 mark over this team total. This number is artificially deflated by the full-game spread and total, making it just too low for a team shooting so well against such lackluster defense.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Oakland A’s/LA Angels Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on FS1
Everything points to a lot of runs in this game, which is why the total here has risen to double digits. But with two bad starting pitchers, both of whom are lefties which these teams are great against, even these inconsistent offenses should be in for a productive day.
Ken Waldichuk finally had a decent start for Oakland last week, but was crushed by the Angels when he saw them to begin the season. The Halos are a top-5 team in just about every advanced metric against left-handed pitching, so that early-season result should be replicated here. With Waldichuk handing it over to the worst bullpen in baseball, LA has the potential to reach this total themselves.
But the A’s are above average in most metrics against lefties themselves, and face a struggling Jose Suarez tonight. Oakland is also a great over bet in general thanks to their pitching, going 15-7 to the over this season including 8-2 on the road. With the bonus of a solid wind blowing out to dead center tonight, we should see this high total justified.
MLB (0.25 Unit) St Louis Cardinals @ SF Giants ML (+105; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on NBCS-BA
It’s not pretty for either of these teams right now, but it’s far less pretty for St Louis considering the expectations around them entering the season. That’s making them get booked at prices that aren’t justified both overall and tonight specifically, so I see value on their opponents most nights.
But as bad as it’s been for San Francisco, the lone bright spot for them has been Alex Cobb who starts tonight. Cobb has limited the damage in all of his starts, only allowing 7 total runs on the year, and as a righty will have the advantage against a Cardinals lineup much better against lefties.
The Giants will then have to get something going against Jordan Montgomery who I don’t like fading, but have to here. San Fran finally looked good offensively in consecutive games this weekend, and Montgomery was rocked in his last start. With Cobb on the mound against a public favorite, I’ll take a shot on the Giants to grab another win here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1230-1082 ATS (+70.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.