Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/NY Knicks Under 206.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ABC
Now this is the kind of Eastern Conference playoff series that you would tend to expect. Elite defense, a slow tempo, and enough bricks to build a mansion are elements of a series you’d expect between teams like this, and it should continue here to create another under.
These teams have yet to crack the 200-point threshold, averaging 191 points per game in this series. Those games have averaged 96 possessions, which is far below what the slowest-paced team in the league averaged on the season. Add in the poor shooting, with both teams in the low 40’s for shooting percentage, and there’s your recipe for unders continuing to come in.
Neither team truly wants to change that style, as it fits their typical and preferred approach, so I see no reason why it would change as the stakes get higher with each game. While books have certainly adjusted this total quite a bit from before the series started, I just have to continue taking the under for ugly basketball.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Golden State Warriors Under 237.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
I can’t believe the total here is still this high after what we saw in Game 3 between these teams. Even without their defensive leader in Draymond Green, the Warriors were finally able to slow the tempo of a Kings team that was ultra-aggressive in the first two games. Getting Green back tonight should only serve to further the trends and splits that pointed to a lower-scoring game once the series moved back to the Chase Center.
No team in the league has more disparity between their defensive efficiency numbers at home versus on the road than Golden State, and it showed on Thursday night. That and inflated totals like this which are built on perception helped the Warriors to the 3rd-best under record in home games. There’s a similar effect with the Kings, whose offensive metrics drop significantly on the road, and made them the NBA’s best under bet in road games this year. These teams only went over this total in 2 of 7 meetings all season, and I think defense reigns again today to create another under.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1229-1081 ATS (+70.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.