Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Russell Westbrook Over 40.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on TNT

I mean, where else are the Clippers going to turn here? It’s Westbrook’s time to shine by making us all remember when he was a walking triple-double, which he almost accomplished on Thursday night. Westbrook has filled up the stat sheet with 8.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game in this series, and that makes this prop easily attainable if he keeps scoring at this rate. After a true West-brick performance in Game 1, he’s finally found the range and that makes him very capable of this level of overall production, so I think he gets there with LA having no alternative.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Miami Heat Over 220 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’m having trouble understanding how two teams that are top-10 in defensive efficiency, in a playoff environment, with the Heat also dead last in scoring, have managed to score like this. But I’m also not going to fight it if that’s how they’re going to play, which makes this total very attainable once again. The past four meetings including the regular season have actually flown over this total, averaging 243 points, so it’s not just this first round series.

Miami has not been a great shooting team all season, but they’ve found it since the late stages of their play-in win, and returning home should give it an extra boost. But it’s mostly the style of play that has led to such a points binge, with the Heat living in transition for easy points in high-possession games. Milwaukee still has plenty of offense without Giannis Antetokounmpo as they showed on Wednesday, and if the style persists today we’ll see plenty of scoring again.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LeBron James Over 43.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

It’s purely a play on the narrative here, which is already baked into the number, but if LeBron is going to have a monster game it’s going to be tonight. There’s too much discussion in the media – which he follows closely – about the Dillon Brooks trash talk needing to be put down for him not to respond here. James has also had solid all-around games against Memphis this season, averaging 39.3 on this prop, so extra motivation can carry him over the top. And when he’s played regular minutes in April he’s averaged 44.8, so the form is there and I see him making the statement we all expect tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Mets/SF Giants Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on FOX

I’m counting primarily on the Mets, who are scorching hot at the plate right now, to continue their excellent hitting here. If they do, they might get this game over the total on their own just as they did on Thursday. It’s certainly possible against the consistently mediocre Logan Webb, who has allowed exactly 4 runs in every start this season. Add in a Giants bullpen that’s allowed the 3rd-most runs in baseball, as well as terrible fielding metrics, and the Mets should be in for another solid day offensively.

But I’m expecting the offense to bounce back for San Francisco as well against David Peterson, who has been hit hard in his last two road starts. The Giants have too many solid right-handed bats in their lineup to keep struggling against lefty pitchers, and that breakout could easily come here. And a big factor for me is high winds blowing straight out of Oracle Park today, which should boost these offenses to an easy over.

MLB (0.75 Unit) St Louis Cardinals @ Seattle Mariners -0.5 First Five Innings (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

The Mariners needed to get on track last night and they did, taking advantage of a bad starting pitcher from the Cardinals. It’s only going to get worse in that department for St Louis as they send out the struggling Miles Mikolas tonight. The righty calmed down a little bit in his last start, even though the Cards lost the first five innings as they have in all his starts. But Mikolas has been hit hard by every opponent that does well against righties, and that’s where Seattle’s strength is offensively.

The biggest strength for the Mariners though is on the mound here, with Luis Castillo looking to continue his excellent start to the season. Castillo has allowed just 2 total runs all season, both of which were on the road, and has compiled a ridiculous 0.61 WHIP through four starts. I don’t see St Louis doing much against him as they have trouble with right-handed pitching and haven’t hit well on the road. The Mariners should get to Mikolas early on for some runs, with Castillo holding it down to give them a lead after five innings.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1226-1079 ATS (+70.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.