Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 @ Brooklyn Nets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I’m just not seeing how the Sixers don’t make quick work of the team that’s accidentally in these playoffs. Philadelphia is obviously the much more talented team here, and they need to get this series over with quickly as other top seeds in the east will be rested and waiting if they don’t. With this line essentially cut in half from the games in Philly, I don’t believe that’s an accurate adjustment given the talent difference here.

The advantages of size and shooting that the Sixers hold over the Nets are drastic, and are what have carried them in the first two games. And those two double-digit wins by Philly have seen them get very pedestrian performances out of several of their star players, including Joel Embiid in both games. With the presumptive MVP primed for a breakout and the talent disparity having won out so far, I expect the Sixers to eventually overwhelm Brooklyn again tonight.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Sacramento Kings +6 @ Golden State Warriors (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Golden State is certainly going to be desperate in this game, with their backs against the wall in an 0-2 hole that Steph Curry has never experienced in his career. So we’re in new territory here with the dynastic Warriors, who aren’t quite looking like the version we’ve come to expect. They’re also without Draymond Green tonight, and Jordan Poole is banged up, potentially leaving them very shorthanded.

That makes this many points just a few too many, especially considering how good Sacramento has been all year. I don’t think the Kings get enough credit for their strength on the road, leading the NBA with a 27-14 road ATS record. A lot of that has to do with facing inflated lines as nobody believed in this team all year, and that seems to be the situation again here. The public narrative will definitely be that the Warriors bounce back here, but a shorthanded team laying this number is just too much so I’ll take the points.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Andrew Wiggins Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

With Draymond Green suspended for this game, his all-around contributions will need to be picked up by his teammates. I think Wiggins slides into the role of contributing on the glass, as we’ve seen it from him before. His rebounding really shot up in last year’s playoffs, and his one game this season with Green sidelined saw him grab 10 boards. There may be times when Wiggins is the tallest Warrior on the floor if they go true small-ball in desperation, so look for him to clean the glass tonight.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Phoenix Suns @ LA Clippers +0.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on NBATV

The Suns are still being booked in this game as the darling to come out of the west, but let’s not overlook the Clippers in general and how they’ve started these first two games. It’s still surprising that this series is 1-1 headed back to LA, but I expect the Clippers to feed off that success and a hyped crowd to start fast again.

The Clippers are a plus-17 in the first quarters of Games 1 and 2, scoring well above their season average in first quarters. The Suns don’t appear prepared to handle the outright aggression of the Clippers, despite the obvious talent disparity.

Coach Ty Lue has been executing wrinkles to perfection, and should have one ready for the start of this game. I think that all creates good value on a Clippers team that’s been strong in home first quarters this year, while Phoenix has a negative first-quarter margin on the road.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Kawhi Leonard Over 41.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I have to keep running this back since even though it’s crept up each game, I don’t think the number is high enough yet. Leonard is fully capable of continuing to score 30-plus points, which creates a really high floor for his overall production on this prop. His rebounding and assisting went up last game as predicted, and I think he has another big night in the stat sheet out of necessity.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on MLB Network

If you believe, like I do, that the Phillies are going to win this game, then you should trust them to cover the run line. Philadelphia has only one win this season that wasn’t by multiple runs, so when they get an advantage over a team they tend to maximize it. It’s easy to get an advantage over Colorado, who is slumping into exactly what was expected this season after 8 straight losses, 7 of which have come by the run line.

And the Rockies are back on the road where their hitting absolutely falls off a cliff, with massive drops in their average, OPS, and scoring. They’ll also send out Ryan Feltner today who has been abysmal no matter where he pitches, but certainly worse on the road. The Phillies have been figuring out their lineup lately, and while they’re inconsistent, I’m seeing them mash against Feltner and a bullpen allowing the 3rd-most runs in baseball. The Rockies being the visitor is one of the few exceptions where I’ll back a home team on the run line, so I’m expecting an easy Phillies win here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1222-1075 ATS (+69.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.