Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers/Memphis Grizzlies Over 227 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
I don’t think it’s an accident that these teams are 3-1 over this total on the season, or that they flew over it on Sunday. That game had the pace you would expect from two teams that are 3rd and 5th in tempo. And the hot shooting from the Lakers wasn’t surprising either, as they’ve shot well all season and in games against Memphis.
The Grizzlies are also going to have to turn it up offensively if they want to even this series. It wouldn’t concern me if Ja Morant missed this game or was significantly limited, as we’ve seen over the past couple seasons that the Grizzlies often score better when he’s out of the lineup. I also think Memphis is really feeling the loss of Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke in this series, as their interior defense would’ve helped a lot on Sunday. That all tells me we’re in for a fairly high-scoring game here, so I’ll go with the over on a number they’re used to clearing easily.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Dillon Brooks Over 14.5 Points (-110; Odds via Caesars)
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (-105; Odds via Caesars): 2:37 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Last night’s 4-0 victory by Chicago was instructive for how today’s game might go, but I see a comfortable Cubs win regardless. It’s just not likely that Oakland is able to produce enough offensively to stay with Chicago here once the Cubs start putting up runs. With Mason Miller making his big-league debut for the A’s, he could frustrate Cubs hitters with no experience against him. But the flame-throwing righty isn’t likely to go deep in this game, bringing baseball’s worst bullpen into play.
That was the case last night when the A’s got a surprisingly good start from a struggling pitcher, but the Cubs pounced on relievers late. And like last night, Chicago has an excellent starting pitcher of their own to hold down the meek Oakland lineup. Justin Steele has been outstanding so far, and against far better lineups, only allowing 3 runs all year and posting a 0.84 WHIP. Oakland is having trouble hitting anything right now, and a hot pitcher should keep them held down. Eventually this hot Cubs team will get going at the plate and extend their 11-5 record on the run line.
MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Houston Astros Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet SW
Jose Berrios is back on the road, which means I’m back on the over. That might be about as simple as this handicap needs to get, as the struggling Jays pitcher has allowed 14 runs in two road starts this season after posting a 6.36 road ERA last year. Houston started the season having trouble with right-handers like Berrios, but are starting to come around and should have an easier time than usual with how bad he has been.
But in terms of pure numbers this season, the Astros might be sending out an even worse starter today. Luis Garcia has been very generous to opposing hitters in every start and it’s been steadily getting worse. His 7.71 ERA is even uglier when you factor in his 7.52 xERA and 5.67 fielding independent. Toronto is 3rd in MLB for weighted runs-created-plus against righties like Garcia, so I see them furthering his troubles. And if these starters have short days, very underwhelming bullpens will take over and allow more scoring. It should all add up to a fairly easy night of getting to double-digit runs.
NBA (1 Unit) Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 Points (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9 PM CT on TNT
I talked about it earlier this week and I’m going to double down now, the Wolves cannot defend the Denver Nugget’s stars. Although Nikola Jokic’s stats didn’t jump off the page in game 1, we saw just how easy it is for him to get what he wants for his team. And unselfishly, he did just that. A beneficiary of some of those assists was MPJ who didn’t have a great shooting day in game one, he wasn’t needed much in a blow out, and he still went over this number. MPJ has been a Wolves killer all year so look for more of the same against a depleted Wolves team that is without their best wing defender in the injured Jaden McDaniels.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1221-1072 ATS (+70.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.