Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Sacramento Kings 1st Quarter Over 59 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
There’s nothing worse than losing a bet by the hook, which happened with the first quarter over in Game 1 on Saturday. Unless of course it was also a situation where all the fundamentals were there, but a ton of opportunities were missed, which also happened in that first quarter. So the handicap remains the same tonight, and I’m expecting this one to easily clear the total.
Nothing has changed with either team’s offensive strength or defensive weakness, nor their tendencies in first quarters. It was obvious on Saturday that neither team was going to win via defense, and an absolutely frenetic pace with 109 possessions was the reason the full game went well over the total. Sacramento coach Mike Brown encouraged his team to play even faster, so with less missed layups early on, this first quarter should play in the 60’s or beyond.
MLB (0.75 Unit) NY Mets/LA Dodgers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network
The offense, or lack thereof, that I saw out of the Dodgers this weekend was disturbing, and I don’t think it gets any better tonight. The Cubs held them to 6 total runs in the series, and only 2 of those were scored in the first five innings of the games.
They have another tough matchup in this one against David Peterson, who isn’t great but is exactly what LA doesn’t want to see right now. As a left-hander, Peterson should be able to hold down the struggling Dodgers who are dead last in batting average against lefties.
And with Dustin May going for the Dodgers tonight, this should be a pitcher’s duel early on. The Mets conversely can’t hit righties, and May has allowed 2 total runs in the first 5 innings of his starts this season. The starting pitcher strengths and the hitting splits are just too drastic to expect much offense early in this game.
Degenerates
NBA Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers -10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
It’s not fun laying big numbers in the playoffs, but this is one of those first round series where it’s obvious one team is outmatched. The Nets threw everything they could at Philadelphia on Saturday, managed to get fairly pedestrian games out of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, but still were run out by 20 points.
The spread for this one has increased over the closing number for Saturday as a result, but that might not be too much cause for concern. In the last 5 postseasons, the home team that’s up 1-0 and laying a bigger number than Game 1 is 13-5-1 ATS in Game 2. I’m expecting a better game out of the other 76ers stars that creates another blowout victory for Philly.
Tiny Nick is 1218-1066 ATS (+73.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.