Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Sacramento Kings 1st Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
Yes, it’s the playoffs, where defensive intensity ramps up and overs are tougher to come by. But this number is too low for a bunch of reasons, not to mention that it’s set less than 25% of the full game total. Let’s start with how these teams played opening quarters in the regular season, going 3-1 over this total while averaging 62 points. The lone under came 8 days ago when the Kings rested their entire starting lineup.
Next is the home/road splits for points scored and allowed in first quarters. Both teams are top-5 in first quarter scoring and bottom-5 in points allowed when Golden State is away and Sacramento is home. Plenty has also been made of the Warriors defense on the road that has the 3rd-worst efficiency in the league, plus the Kings defense at home that’s 2nd-worst in efficiency.
Kings insiders have said this team plans to ramp up its already fast pace in this series to try to wear out an older Warriors roster, so expect this game to be up-tempo at least to start. And early is when we’ll see the Warriors and their preferred starting five, which in their limited time together has put up the league’s best offensive rating. This game might slow down late, but I really think we see a frenetic and high-scoring start.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/St Louis Cardinals Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:15 PM CT on Bally Sports MW
You might be surprised by which team does the bulk of the scoring to get this game over the total, and I’m tempted by a juicy return on Pittsburgh here. But I can’t trust either of these gas can starting pitchers, so ultimately have to believe they’ll surrender plenty of runs. The most untrustworthy might be Steven Matz, who looks like he should just retire already. The lefty has been roughed up in both his starts by teams who hit left-handed pitching well.
That happens to be Pittsburgh’s strength at the plate, with the Pirates much better in average, on-base percentage, and OPS against southpaws. But they’re sending out their own struggling starter in Roansy Contreras, a righty who struggled against the Cards last season with a 5.02 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. The Cardinals offense really needs to wake up, and I think they do here to help push this game over the total.
MLB (1 Unit) NY Mets/Oakland A’s Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:07 PM CT on NBCS-BA
More bad pitching takes the mound from both teams in this one, and despite Oakland’s offensive issues I’m expecting plenty of scoring. The A’s have a lot of trouble with right-handed pitching, but Carlos Carrasco has been giving it up to everyone so far. He’s allowed 11 runs and a 1.98 WHIP in two starts against Milwaukee and Miami, not exactly the teams you think of for potent offensive clubs.
While the Mets might struggle against righties on the season they broke out of that slump yesterday, and they’ll see the budding disaster that is Shintaro Fujinami today. The Oakland rookie has been absolutely shelled in both starts, and a deep, talented Mets lineup should be able to tee off here. There’s also a solid wind blowing out of Oakland Coliseum today, so I see these offenses doing enough to cash the over here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1210-1055 ATS (+77.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.