Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
The underrated part of Tampa’s historic start to the season is how many runs they’re scoring, especially considering that they are, in fact, the Rays. But they’ve ditched their usual low-scoring ways in averaging 8.3 runs per game, and even though it’s been against some of MLB’s worst pitching staffs, I think it can continue here.
Tampa has had a lot of success against Boston starter Nick Pivetta, who posted a 6.86 ERA and .286 on-base average allowed in 3 starts against the Rays last year. Plus Tampa has been destroying right-handed pitching in general, with a .293 average and 1.012 OPS so far.
I think they might need plenty of runs here, as Boston has been excellent against Josh Fleming who will get the bulk of the work after Jalen Beeks opens. But the Rays might want to reconsider that as the Red Sox have a cumulative .436 average and 1.028 OPS against Fleming and are crushing lefties. That’s why this total is on the rise, and I think we see double digit runs today.
MLB (1 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNetRM
This St Louis offense cannot be as bad as their recent stretch makes it seem. A talented and deep lineup has run into some hot pitching, but they’ll get the cure for ailing offense now as they visit Coors Field. A pretty bad Nationals offense just managed 5.8 runs per game for their series in the thin Denver air, so the Cardinals should be able to ramp things up as well.
The pitching they’ll face certainly helps, as German Marquez takes the mound for the Rockies. If last season is any indication he should be far worse at home, and the Cardinals hitters have compiled a .323 average and .969 OPS against him. But I think the Rockies produce plenty here against Steven Matz, as Colorado’s lineup has a combined .467 average and 1.285 OPS in their careers against the Cardinal lefty. That should spark both teams to big days at the plate as the excellent Coors conditions aid another over.
MLB (1 Unit) Washington Nationals/LA Angels Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on Bally Sports SC
I just mentioned how the Nationals managed to find some offense in Colorado over the weekend, so hopefully at least some of that carries over into today. They’ll have a very favorable pitching matchup against Jose Suarez, who was rocked in his only other start this season. As a lefty, Suarez is playing right into the one strength of this Washington team, which hits lefties for a .319 average and .800 OPS.
If the Nats can contribute anything, then I think the fact that it’s Patrick Corbin Day will take care of the rest. Speaking of crushing lefty pitching, the Angels have a .314 average and .946 OPS against lefties like Corbin so far this season. The Angels have a ton of offensive potential and have shown it against poor pitching. Against one of the worst in the league, I have to imagine we’ll see enough runs from LA to push this game over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1198-1039 ATS (+77.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.