Locks

MLB (0.6 Unit) Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins ML (-120; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports NorthX

Long-suffering Twins and Minnesota sports fans in general look at a game like this and wonder when the other shoe is going to drop. Are the Twins really going to sweep the defending champs? I think yes, as today is probably the game in this series where I’m most confident in Minnesota having the advantage on the mound.

Tyler Mahle looked great last week, even though it was the Marlins and he had plenty of run support. But I think the Twins give him more support today, building off yesterday’s offensive outburst against a weak pitcher. The Astros will start rookie Hunter Brown today after the righty struggled against a bad Tigers offense last week. The market has flipped the favorite here and seem to be catching on that the Twins are pretty good, so I’ll back them to get the brooms out today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Detroit Tigers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

Yesterday I talked about the Red Sox finding their offense again, and having a good potential matchup against a left-handed starter. They put up 14 runs to justify that theory, and today will have another opportunity against another lefty starter. Matthew Boyd can be sneaky good sometimes, but the way Boston is hitting right now I have to expect they’ll get to him for plenty of runs today.

And once again I think they’ll need to if they want to compensate for their own poor pitching. Boston starts Kutter Crawford again today after the righty gave up 7 runs with 3 homers to Pittsburgh last time out, and historically has been far worse on the road and in day games. The Tigers found enough offense yesterday to make me believe they’ll contribute here against Crawford, so I’m on the over once again.

MLB (1.5 Unit) Oakland A’s @ Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-150; Odds via Caesars): 12:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN

I really wish I didn’t have to lay this much juice, so I’ll probably dabble in the alternate lines market and take -2.5 with Tampa as well. But they keep rewarding bettors from every possible angle, as they’ve now had the most wins by 4-plus runs to start a season in major league history. It’s not going to last forever, but it does seem like it will keep going against these bottom-feeder opponents.

Today’s starter Drew Rasmussen can be somewhat of a wild card, but he dominated Oakland in a start last season, and has usually been elite at home. He was basically untouchable last week against another bad offense in Washington, so expect him to hold the A’s down once again. That should allow the Tampa offense to jump on James Kaprielian who doesn’t scare anyone, especially not a Rays team batting .282 with a .970 OPS against righties. The schedule gets tougher after this for Tampa, so I’m taking advantage again today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on SportsNet PT

White Sox games have been absolutely wild so far this season, as their strong offense tries to make up for surprisingly bad pitching. Case in point has been these two games with Pittsburgh going for 22 and 16 runs, making it 6 out of 9 games for Chicago that have seen double-digit runs. I don’t see any letup today against a Pittsburgh team that’s mashing right now.

The Pirates are a good fastball hitting team, and that should help today against Michael Kopech who is part of that surprisingly bad pitching for Chicago. So this might turn into a slugfest with Johan Oviedo going for the Pirates, as the Pittsburgh righty was rocked by Boston last week who has a similarly strong offense to Chicago. I’m just seeing too strong of offenses and too poor of pitching in this one to think anything will keep them from another high-scoring game today.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors -6 First Quarter @ Portland Trail Blazers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

On a day of mostly meaningless games in the NBA, the Warriors are actually incentivized to take care of business against Portland here. Golden State showed on Friday what they can do against a team without any of its starters, jumping on Sacramento by 16 after the first quarter. The tanking Blazers will be without everyone you’ve heard of, and are also on a back-to-back here after a high-possessions game in LA yesterday.

I think the Warriors also want to be careful here, as Steph Curry is dealing with a hip issue. He’s probable to play, and I expect them to jump on Portland early so he can rest later in the game. While Golden State’s defensive issues on the road this season are well-documented, I expect that to matter a lot less against the G-League roster they’ll see today. The Warriors appear confident heading into the postseason and are a team that loves to make statements, so I think they make one early today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1196-1036 ATS (+77.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.