Locks.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs +14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Timberwolves need this game for seeding in the play-in tournament, but do they need it by 14 points? San Antonio has no incentive to tank any longer as they’re locked into the bottom three of the league, guaranteeing them the best possible lottery odds.
We also know the struggles the Wolves have had with the worst teams in the league, and that includes their year against the Spurs. While the Wolves haven’t seen San Antonio since October, the Spurs did still manage to take 2 of 3 outright from them. Those losses, among others, are definitely haunting Minnesota right now, and at some point the struggles with poor teams has to get in their head.
With the memory of their Portland loss still fresh in my head, I’m just not sure the Wolves should be laying this many points on the road to anyone. Assuming they win today, tomorrow’s game is far more important, so I would not be surprised to see the Spurs hang around in this one if the Wolves are looking ahead.
MLB (1.4 Unit) Oakland A’s @ Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-140; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
Unless you’re playing around in the alternate line market, you just have to hold your nose and swallow a lot of juice on this game. It’s not my favorite thing to do, but Tampa against a bad opponent is quickly becoming my favorite bet. A demolition of Oakland yesterday moved the Rays to 7-0 straight up, on the run line, and on the alt line.
I think it gets even more out of hand today, as the Rays have maybe their best pitcher in Jeffrey Springs going. He should dominate a weak Athletics lineup that’s been even worse against left-handed pitching so far. And the Shintaro Fujinami experiment did not get off to a great start for Oakland, so with the Rays hitting everything, I think they’ll crush him and the A’s in this one.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Detroit Tigers Over 8 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
I think Boston might have to do most of the work to get this game over the total, but it’s low enough where that shouldn’t be asking too much. I think the Red Sox can jump all over Tigers starter Joey Wentz here, as Boston is already batting .319 against lefties like Wentz this season. They seemed to find their offense again in the first game of this series, and should lean on that again today.
They might need to as they’ll start Tanner Houck, who is usually a reliever but filling in for the thin Boston rotation. That also means he isn’t likely to go deep into this game, bringing in the Boston bullpen that has already predictably struggled this year. The Tigers don’t hit very well at all, but at least they’re better against righties like Houck. If they can contribute a few runs here, I think this game finds its way over a low number.
MLB (1 Unit) LA Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:07 PM CT on Bally Sports SC
Good on the Twins for dumping Jose Berrios right before he completely collapsed. At least when he pitches on the road that is, which has become one of the easier fades in baseball going back to last season. Last year Berrios posted a whopping 6.36 ERA and .303 on-base average allowed in his road starts, and it’s not looking any better so far. In his first start the Toronto righty allowed 8 earned runs to the Royals, which accounts for 40% of KC’s runs on the season.
Add in his awful showing in the WBC, and something is very wrong with Berrios at the moment. The Angels haven’t shown a ton of consistency on offense this season, and aren’t great against righties so far. But this is not your typical situation with Berrios in town, and I expect the LA bats to wake up. Overvaluation of the Blue Jays in general for this game is keeping it around a pick-em and thus holding down the team totals, so I’m jumping on the chance to fade Road Berrios at a fairly low number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1193-1035 ATS (+75.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.