Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Dallas Mavericks Under 230.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on League Pass
The Mavericks were one of the best over bets in the league for a couple months, but that has completely shifted since February. The past two months have seen Dallas go 18-9 to the under, including the current 11-4 run. Somehow they’ve bought in on playing defense, and a game like this between two perceived over teams is a good opportunity to jump on the under again.
The Hawks aren’t going to play much defense, but without Trae Young to get into the usual contest with Luka Doncic, this game should have a much different style. Plus, Atlanta’s over record is really built up on crazy results in home games, as they’re actually an under team on the road. This number feels like it’s based on an incorrect perception of these teams, so I’m going with the under here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 54.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The fun thing about Luka is he can pile up the stats in any kind of game. He went for 73 points against Atlanta in the first meeting this season, tacking on 10 boards and 7 dimes just for fun in an insane 148-143 game. But Doncic also messed around and got a 30-point triple double on Tuesday when the Mavs only scored 100 points. The Hawks might be extra motivated to slow him down tonight after that first game, but I don’t think they can and he’ll stuff the stat sheet again here.
NBA (1 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Houston Rockets Under 226.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-Bay Area
This total is far too high for the results we’ve seen from both teams this season. Golden State is one of the better under teams on the road, going 22-15 for the 4th-best under mark in the league. And when they’re not running up the score on tanking opponents, Houston is one of the better under teams in the league thanks to their excellent defense.
The Rockets are a top-5 defense in home games, and should lean on that tonight, especially with this game being a do-or-die for their slim playoff hopes. The trick to stopping the Rockets without Alperen Sengun is to keep them out of transition, forcing them to play half-court offense where they’re a bottom-5 shooting team. I’m trusting of Steve Kerr to know that and execute on it, so look for this to be another low-scoring affair.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2183-1974 ATS (+99.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.