Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 110.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This is a revenge game for the Wolves, and I think a red-hot team takes advantage. While it’s important to keep an eye on the status of Anthony Edwards for tonight, he’s been playing through every questionable tag so I’d expect him to be a go. With Ant in the lineup, the Wolves can torch a Chicago defense that really struggles on the road. The Bulls have allowed the opponent to go over this team total in 6 straight road games, and in 10 of their past 15 overall. It’s why Chicago has turned into the league’s best over team, so look for the over to come in tonight for at least the Wolves.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 10.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
When NAW gets minutes, he gets over this number, it’s been as simple as that. He should get enough usage tonight in a game the Wolves should be able to control and have the reserves play late. NAW is averaging 14.2 in March on this prop, so I’m pretty confident in his production at this same number as Friday’s game.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Tennessee Moneyline vs Purdue (+140; Odds via Caesars): 1:20 PM CT on CBS
You can keep the points, I think Tennessee has enough to punch a Final Four ticket today. The Volunteers are the kind of team you want against Purdue, with elite defensive wings and a powerful yet athletic post player. Especially with Zach Edey on the floor, Purdue struggles with allowing teams to space them out, and that’s exactly what Tennessee can do here.
The Vols will need to knock down mid-range shots, but we’ve seen all year how they can bury teams with just a little offensive success. I hate having to take a side with either Matt Painter or Rick Barnes in March, but I’ll take a flier here that the more athletic and better defensive team wins out.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Duke -7 vs NC State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:05 PM CT on CBS
In the ACC tournament meeting between these teams, on a neutral floor of course, Duke was laying 11 points. So this number today obviously reflects the incredible run that NC State is on, but that adjustment might be a little too much. Duke has found another gear in the tournament, which isn’t all that surprising when you look back.
The Blue Devils had the kind of metrics profile you’d want to make a deep run, they just lacked coaching experience. They have plenty of experience with this Wolfpack team though, and are superior in just about every way. And that spread that’s giving a lot of respect to NC State has been hammered by sharp money to drive it towards the metrics projections, and I’m going with that move here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins Moneyline @ KC Royals (-125; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Twins have relied effectively on their pitching to take the first two from the Royals, and I think they have a strong advantage there again today. Bailey Ober should be given more credit for a strong season last year, and even if he’s on a shorter leash today, the bullpen has been fantastic the past two games. I’ll take that staff against Brady Singer any day, as the KC righty was lit up plenty last year and has allowed a career .311 average to the Twins lineup. I don’t think the Twins are priced appropriately yet against the rest of the Central, so I’ll lay this juice to back them in another win.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2180-1968 ATS (+99.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.